The container shipping industry remains cautious about passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire Tuesday night.
According to Hapag-Lloyd, if a ceasefire does hold, it would take at least six to eight weeks to fully resume normal traffic throughout its network.
Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen told customers Wednesday that the situation was “fluid,” noting that the company would need security assurances to pass its ships through the conflict-ridden waterway.
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“Even though a ceasefire has been agreed overnight, it’s fair to say that the conflict in the Middle East continues to severely disrupt shipping and supply chains,” said Habben Jansen. The crisis is costing the container shipping firm an extra $50 million to $60 million weekly, up from a peak of $50 million just two weeks ago.
In one positive, the CEO indicated that Hapag-Lloyd could start accepting customer orders in the coming days if the ceasefire holds.
“We will likely open bookings into the upper Gulf region, initially for selected markets, but hopefully more broadly soon,” Habben Jansen said.
Maersk showed optimism in response to the Pakistan-brokered ceasefire, but said it would not make any changes to specific services.
Visibility into cargo in the Persian Gulf is low for now, according to the ocean carrier, which is seeking further clarity on the ceasefire’s “very limited” details.
“The ceasefire may create transit opportunities, but it does not yet provide full maritime certainty, and we need to understand all potential conditions attached,” Maersk said in a customer advisory Wednesday. “The safety of our seafarers, vessels and cargo remains Maersk’s highest priority.”
Freight rate benchmarking platform Xeneta does not expect the ceasefire to restore container shipping operations through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-conflict conditions.
“The conflict has displaced 250,000 TEUs of weekly container shipping capacity and carriers have put a lot of effort and expense into establishing alternative routings to allow goods to flow into the region,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta. “You do not suddenly toss that out of the window because there is a two-week ceasefire.”
The ceasefire does not solve the capacity displacement concern, Sand said in a Wednesday update. He noted that there is significant schedule disruption at ports like Mundra and Nhava Sheva in India and Khor Fakkan in the U.A.E., where it will be a priority to clear cargo that has accumulated.
“That is not going to go away overnight,” Sand said. “It simply creates a brief opportunity to move the most urgent freight.”
The status of the strait itself carries many question marks, with Dimitris Ampatzidis, maritime risk and compliance manager at MarineTraffic, calling conditions “fragile.”
The ceasefire was contingent on the “complete, immediate and safe opening” of the Hormuz strait, according to President Donald Trump’s social media post late Tuesday. But Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy said Wednesday morning that ships anchored near the channel would still need its permission to pass through.
Vessels may have to pay to pass the apparent “toll booth” system Iran speaks of implementing, with a report from Financial Times saying the regime is seeking to charge fees of $1 per barrel of oil for tankers. President Trump even suggested the U.S. may enter a “joint venture” with Iran to charge tolls to vessels traversing the strait.
“How much will it cost? How will transits and payments be managed and will this delay carriers returning services to the region?” Sand questioned. “Could some ships be denied transit even if they are willing to pay? This kind of uncertainty is not good for supply chains.”
On Wednesday, oil tankers passing through the Hormuz were reportedly stopped, according to IRGC-aligned news outlet Fars News Agency. According to that report, Iranian forces halted the tankers after Israel attacked Lebanon, which officials consider a breach of the ceasefire. The U.S. maintains Lebanon is not part of its ceasefire agreement.
Two bulk carriers, NJ Earth and Daytona Beach, both crossed through the strait eastbound early that morning.
Three CMA CGM ships currently in the Persian Gulf could be prepping to exit through the strait.
Two ultra-large vessels capable of carrying 15,300 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs), the CMA Everglade and CMA CGM Galapagos, both left their waiting positions on early Wednesday and are headed closer to the passage, according to transponder data reported by MarineTraffic.
Additionally, the 2,600-TEU CMA CGM Manaus is following suit.
The French-owned and -operated CMA CGM was the first of the top European ocean carriers to see a vessel pass through the strait. A report from Journal of Commerce said the carrier had secured assurances from Iranian authorities guaranteeing safe passage for its ships that are trapped inside the Persian Gulf.
On Tuesday, ahead of the ceasefire, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increased to 11 crossings, according to MarineTraffic. The numbers rebounded from the seven recorded the day prior and matched the recent peak observed on Sunday.
Activity consisted of four sanctioned vessels, six shadow vessels, and one non-sanctioned, non-shadow vessel transiting the strait.
