The Iran war-driven shipping collapse in the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to impact U.S. import volumes, but rising fuel costs are keeping retailers on edge.
According to the monthly Global Port Tracker from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, total inbound cargo volume at major U.S. container ports is not being significantly affected by the Middle East conflict.
The surge in oil prices since the start of the war brings retailers and end consumers more worry, as ocean carriers have already borne the brunt of the fuel costs and Amazon and the U.S Postal Service implement surcharges to cover the expense.
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“Just because retailers don’t import a lot of merchandise from the Middle East doesn’t mean the U.S. supply chain isn’t affected by the turmoil there,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the NRF. “The supply chain is global and disruptions anywhere along it can have ripple effects whether it’s rerouting of vessels, equipment out of position, higher fuel costs for shippers or rising gas prices that leave less money in consumers’ pockets.”
According to Gold, retailers are monitoring the situation daily and working with their transportation partners to minimize any impact.
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said it is “too soon” to measure the impact of Tuesday night’s two-week ceasefire.
“The United States is less impacted operationally as there is no shortage of fuel at U.S. ports, but the price of fuel here is based on international pricing,” Hackett said. “Higher fuel costs drive up the price of shipping a container for either import or export and ultimately have an inflationary impact on consumers and other end users.”
Hackett noted that ports in Asia depend on fuel from the Persian Gulf and could see shortages if the conflict is not resolved soon
Coinciding with the spiking oil prices, global ocean freight rates are still escalating on trade routes entering the U.S. According to Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI), spot rates from Shanghai to New York increased 7 percent to $3,671 per 40-foot container, while those to Los Angeles rose 9 percent to $2,910.
Since the start of the war on Feb. 28, the Shanghai-to-New York rates have increased 32.5 percent, while prices for Los Angeles-bound containers have risen 32.8 percent.
Trans-Atlantic routes had a substantial one-week jump, with containers on the Rotterdam to New York route skyrocketing 25 percent to $1,968 on average. The catalyst for this increase was a 13 percent month-over-month contraction in available ocean capacity.
As shippers endured the price increases throughout March, they are expected to have brought in fewer goods during the month. The Global Port Tracker projects major U.S. ports to handle 8.3 percent fewer cargo this year, amounting to 1.97 million TEUs.
NRF’s decline was much steeper than Descartes Systems’ import projections for March, which the supply chain tech provider said contracted 1.1 percent to 2.35 million TEUs.
Containers from China declined 6.7 percent year over year, totaling 711,652 TEUs. Descartes said this reflected residual impacts from February’s late Lunar New Year, as typical 30-to-50-day transit times can shift production slowdowns into March arrival volumes.
Apparel, footwear and other textiles combined accounted for approximately 7.6 percent of total volume, with apparel and footwear declining 13.9 percent and 12.2 percent year-over-year, respectively.
Overall, this year’s decline in March imports was also heavily impacted by last spring’s heavy front-loading of cargo, as retailers sought to haul in imports ahead of President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs.
Inbound cargo volumes will be impacted largely by those year-over-year comparisons, when retailers suspended and restarted bookings in accordance with shifting tariffs.
According to the Global Port Tracker, cargo entering U.S. ports in April is forecast at 2.08 million TEUs, down 5.6 year over year.
Due to the steep drop-off in imports during May and June last year amid mass tariff-driven booking cancellations, those two months expect a rebound in 2026.
In May, U.S. ports are expected to handle 2.09 million TEUs, up 7.3 percent from last year. Similarly, there will be a 6.9 percent jump in inbound cargo volumes in June to 2.1 million TEUs.
Despite the Supreme Court ruling that last year’s IEEPA tariffs were illegal, “retailers continue to face rising tariffs and continued trade policy uncertainty that put downward pressure on imports and upward pressure on prices,” NRF’s Gold said.
Last month, President Trump announced a temporary 10 percent global tariff under the Trade Act of 1974. More recently, the commander-in-chief adjusted Section 232 tariffs that were imposed last year on imported steel, aluminum and copper and announced new Section 232 tariffs on pharmaceutical products and ingredients.
