The fourth quarter’s previously projected double-digit dip in inbound cargo volumes is starting to coming to fruition.
According to data from the monthly Global Port Tracker from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and trade consultancy Hackett Associates, major U.S. ports are expected to see imports decline 11.5 percent to 1.99 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in October.
One of America’s most prominent gateways has given a taste of what it may look like for fellow ports as the holiday season nears.
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At the Port of Long Beach, imports declined at a faster pace, sinking 17.6 percent to 401,915 TEUs.
The inbound figures held down the overall throughput at the California port, which saw cargo containers plummet 14.9 percent from October 2024. Exports decreased 11.5 percent to 99,817 TEUs. Empty containers moving through the port also declined 12.6 percent to 337,940 TEUs.
These numbers align with yet another month of deterioration in China-U.S. trade, although roughly 60 percent of total cargo volumes at the port still come from China, according to chief operating officer Noel Hacegaba.
In October, China’s exports to the U.S. declined 25.2 percent, marking the seventh straight month of double-digit declines for goods on the trade lane.
During a news conference Friday, Port of Long Beach CEO Mario Cordero said he expects an increase in cargo from China in the future due to the 10 percent reduction of punitive fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese goods, which went into effect Monday
As for the holiday season, Cordero anticipates a “robust” Black Friday, but noted that consumers are likely to be more cautious with spending in rising prices.
For example, he revealed that cold weather apparel coming through the port has taken a major hit throughout the year.
“Over the past year, the Port of Long Beach moved 98,000 TEUs filled with sweaters, coats and sweatshirts for those looking to keep warm this winter,” Cordero said. “However, that was down 52 percent from this time last year.”
The port chief was quick to point out that overall, the price increases have not severely impacted the consumer “given that the manufacturers, retailers and others have shared incurring some of these costs and mitigating the price escalation.”
However, he said that may change in 2026 as shippers pass on more costs to the consumer.
The NRF isn’t concerned about imminent holiday price increases given the shippers’ decision to pull forward goods throughout the summer ahead of several tariff deadlines.
“We’ve spent most of the year worried about the impact of tariffs on both inflation and the supply chain but the holiday season is here and mitigation efforts appear to have paid off,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at NRF, in a statement. “Store shelves are well stocked and the effect on prices has been minimized, largely thanks to retailers taking steps like front-loading imports during times of low or delayed tariff increases or absorbing the costs themselves. Consumers should be able to find the products they want at prices they like.”
Despite the resilience of the consumer, Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said the on-again, off-again tariff policy from the Trump administration has made long-term planning difficult for importers and ocean carriers alike.
“These conditions make market forecasting highly uncertain,” Hackett said. “Our trade outlook is for a small decline in imports this year compared with 2024 and a further, larger decline in the first quarter of 2026.”
For the full year, the Global Port Tracker forecasts 24.9 million TEUs of inbound cargo volume at U.S. ports, down 2.3 percent from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
The final two months of the year should see serious declines, the firms say, with November expectations coming in at 1.85 million TEUs, down 14.4 percent year over year. Closing the year, inbound cargo volume at U.S. ports in December could see a more substantial drop of 17.9 percent to 1.75 million TEUs.
At the Long Beach port, Cordero echoed that there would be reduced volumes for imports and exports across November and December, but said that there’s still a “good chance” of breaking last year’s record of 9.6 million TEUs handled.
Looking ahead to 2026, the Port of Long Beach expects a “moderate increase” in cargo for the year, Cordero said.
The Global Port Tracker doesn’t have full projections for 2026 yet, but is expecting the downturn to endure throughout the first quarter of the year.
January 2026 is forecast at 1.98 million TEUs, down 11.1 percent year over year. February projections come in at 1.85 million TEUs, down 9 percent, while March is anticipated for a steeper downturn of 16.7 percent to 1.79 million TEUs.
