Despite the United States levying double-digit duties not seen in nearly a century, global trade is maintaining its strength.
In fact, trade between countries across the globe grew at its fastest rate since 2010 (aside from the rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic) during the first half of 2025, according to DHL’s Global Connectedness Tracker, a survey released in partnership with NYU Stern.
And despite the major upheaval that tariff turmoil has wrought on the trading landscape, that trajectory is expected to continue. The Tracker projects that worldwide trade volumes will grow at a 2.5 percent annualized growth rate between 2025 and 2029, “roughly matching the pace of the previous decade.”
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The reason? The U.S. actually plays a less significant role in global trade than its outsized reputation would imply. Just 13 percent of all global goods imports flowed through U.S. ports of entry in 2024, while only 9 percent of exports came from America. And despite the Trump administration’s liberal application of tariffs to more than 90 countries, most other nations haven’t followed suit in implementing their own broad duty increases.
“Despite all the headwinds, the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker highlights the enduring strength of global trade,” said John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express. “Trade barriers do not serve the world’s best interests. But we must never underestimate the creativity of buyers and sellers around the world who want to do business with each other.”
U.S. tariffs are, of course, projected to slow global trade growth. But they won’t stop the momentum that was in place before President Donald Trump took the oath of office for a second time.
In January, prior to the current influx of tariff hikes, global goods trade volume was expected to grow at a 3.1 percent annualized rate during the 2025-2029 period. Though that’s now been downgraded by 0.6 percent, much of that impact will be felt by North America.
North America has seen the most precipitous downgrade, according to Tracker data, with projections dropping from 2.7 percent in January to 1.5 percent in September. While many other regions also saw downward revisions, Central America, South America, the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa all saw upward revisions, as many saw smaller U.S. tariff increases and the Middle East is likely to see the upsides of increased oil production and exports.
Speaking to the growth phenomenon seen during the first half of 2025, analysts attributed much of it to the rush in importing as buyers and brands attempted to frontload shipments before the tariffs took hold. Since U.S. import volumes of China-originating goods fell, the sourcing superpower has “fully offset” the decline with shipments to Southeast Asia and beyond, including to Africa, the European Union and more. According to the Tracker, even after the pull-ahead phenomenon died down, global trade volumes stayed above 2024 levels.
The data also showed “no pattern of companies redirecting investment from foreign to domestic markets”—notable given the Trump administration’s stated goals of bringing business back to the U.S. market. However, Tracker data showed that cross-border merger and acquisition deals remain largely unchanged, and in fact, trade uncertainty has deterred some smaller cross-border investments and purchases.
Despite 2024 seeing the highest number of active conflicts since World War II, the Tracker’s data showed that rival geopolitical blocs aren’t cleaving apart as might be expected, even with the U.S. and China continuing to decouple and Russia becoming all the more divorced from Western economies.
Regionalization is not overtaking globalization—“[i]n fact, the average distance that traded goods traveled rose to a new record of about 5,000 kilometers during the first half of 2025,” the study said, and the share of trade within, rather than amongst, major world regions fell to a record low of 51 percent.
“Trade and international business investment trends so far in 2025 do not support the view that globalization has gone into reverse,” said Prof. Steven A. Altman, Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management.
“While it would be a mistake to disregard current policy threats to globalization, companies are not generally pulling back from international markets, trade is crossing the longest average distance on record, and geopolitical conflicts have reshaped only a small fraction of the world’s international activity,” he said.
According to Altman, companies are not retreating from a “connected world,” but managing the risks.
