Import cargo at top U.S. ports is expected to see a surge this summer as retailers take advantage of last month’s 90-day rollback in tariffs imposed on China, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
A down May—when mass tariff-driven booking cancellations led to a decline in trans-Pacific sailings—is expected to be followed up by a stronger-than-expected summer season as more brands rush to bring goods into the U.S. ahead of tariff deadlines in July and August.
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Ports have not yet reported official numbers for May, but the Global Port Tracker projected an 8.1 percent year-over-year dip to 1.91 million 20-foot-equivalent units (TEUs). This prediction is ahead of the 1.81 million TEUs the tracker had called for last month, which would have marked a 12.9 percent decrease.
May’s projected decline would be the first year-over-year drop since September 2023 and the lowest inbound cargo volume since 1.87 million TEUs entered the ports in December 2023.
June is forecast at 2.01 million TEUs down 6.2 percent year over year. The forecast is a significant improvement from the previous projection of 1.71 million TEUs, which would have been the lowest volume since March 2023 and represent a 20.2 percent drop year over year.
“This is the busiest time of the year for retailers as they enter the back-to-school season and prepare for the fall-winter holiday season,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy, NRF, in a statement. “Retailers had paused their purchases and imports previously because of the significantly high tariffs. They are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving in order to bring as much merchandise into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August.”
As part of the tariff relief, the Trump administration pared back what had escalated to a 145 percent import duty on Chinese goods down to 30 percent. That relief has been the main catalyst for expected influx of cargo and ensuing shift in predictions.
The current forecast would bring the first half of 2025 to 12.54 million TEUs, up 3.7 percent year over year. That’s better than the 12.13 million-TEU forecast last month before the tariff pause was unveiled, but still below the 12.78 million TEU, up 5.7 percent year over year, forecast before President Donald Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement.
In July, the inbound cargo total is expected to be 2.13 million TEUs, down 8.1 percent from the year prior. Previously, import volumes had a projected 23.4 percent year-over-year drop to 1.77 million TEUs.
And for August, the traditional start of the peak shipping season, will bring in 1.98 million TEUs, a 14.7 percent decrease from last year. The prior numbers calculated 1.82 million TEUs entering major American ports, a 21.5 percent decline.
“Retailers want to ensure consumers will be able to find the products they need and want at prices they can afford. Unfortunately, there is still considerable uncertainty as to what will happen after the pauses end,” said Gold. “We strongly encourage the administration to continue negotiating agreements with our trading partners in order to restore predictability and stability to the supply chain.”
The higher projections come as more capacity continues to come online on the trans-Pacific trade lane. A recent report from maritime trade advisory service Sea-Intelligence indicates container shipping lines are planning to offer approximately 18 percent more year-over-year capacity on the Asia-to-North American West Coast trade lane in June and July—furthering speculation that ports in Los Angeles and Long Beach could see record traffic in the summer months.
“The peak for the winter holidays will come early this year, making it simultaneous with the peak for the back-to-school season,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. “If higher tariffs are not delayed again, we can expect the final four months of the year to see declining volumes of imports.”
September’s estimate remains in line with last month’s expectation, with at 1.78 million TEUs, a 21.8 percent year-over-year contraction. The first projection for October calls for 1.8 million TEUs, down 19.8 percent.
According to the Global Port Tracker, sharp declines for 2025’s closing months are still expected partly due to elevated imports in late 2024, when there were rampant concerns about both the tariffs and the East Coast and Gulf Coast port strikes.
