The Port of Los Angeles handled 6.3 percent fewer containers in October, with the largest ocean gateway in the U.S. expecting cargo to soften in November and December.
For October, the California port processed 848,431 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs). According to Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, the port expects to surpass 10 million TEUs handled this year.
In the final two months of the year, total TEUs are expected to contract 10 percent and 15 percent compared to 2024’s holiday season, with Seroka attributing the decline to unusually high numbers last year when shippers first began front-loading goods into the U.S. after the presidential election in anticipation of new tariffs.
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As for this year, retail and manufacturing inventories were already “well stocked,” Seroka said, “so there’s simply less need for immediate replenishment.”
Combined, he said these factors suggest a more typical holiday season softening to close out the year.
The L.A. port projections come as U.S. ports overall are expected to see a major deterioration in imports through the first quarter of 2026. According to the Global Port Tracker from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, inbound cargo volume is expected to dip 14.4 percent in November and 17.9 percent in December.
In October, loaded imports at the Los Angeles port came in at 429,283 TEUs, 7 percent less than last year, while loaded exports landed at 123,768 TEUs, 1 percent more than 2024. The port handled 295,380 empty container units, 8 percent less than last year.
The decline in imports comes as China’s exports to the U.S. declined 25.2 percent, in yet another month this year where goods on that trade lane declined double digits.
But Seroka said the import total is right in line with the five-year average, which “tells us consumer demand has held steady even as retailers and manufacturers moderate orders heading into the end of the year.”
With so much inventory already in the U.S. and inbound cargo recently cooling off, an import surge could take place later in 2026, points out Vespucci Maritime CEO Lars Jensen.
“Given the decline in U.S. imports and the seeming resilience of U.S. consumption (but bear in mind data on that is also lacking), it is very likely that we are in the midst of a significant reduction in U.S. inventories,” said Jensen in a Thursday update on LinkedIn. “This sets up a situation where at some point in the future—likely in 2026—the importers will commence a cycle of inventory replenishment. This would in itself cause a sudden surge in US import demand with the main unknown parameter being exactly when.”
Ahead of the Lunar New Year starting Feb. 17, Seroka said “we’ll likely see a bit of a run up” in imports, but that there’s still “a lot we don’t know” when it comes to economic data to make an accurate prediction.
In particular, the port director said he was awaiting federal projections on hiring, unemployment, consumer spending, manufacturing and gross domestic product (GDP), which has typically mirrored trans-Pacific trade over the past decade.
As far as that trade lane goes, despite the slight relief in the U.S.-China tensions, “some companies tell me their tariffs are still much higher” than the roughly 47 percent average duty now placed on Chinese goods. “So this relief on the commodity side is not that great.”
Seroka expects Southeast Asia to continue taking up a larger share of the goods entering the Port of Los Angeles.
“We’ll continue to see shifts in sourcing to Southeast Asia and they’re across a top-five commodity grouping that we’ve already seen trending in that way, from furniture to auto parts, apparel, plastics, and electronics,” Seroka said. “Footwear also has been in place in Vietnam for some time.”
With more framework trade deals in place, Seroka said 2026 should see more trade stability.
He also sought to ease concerns some may have on a federal crackdown on trucking licenses in California, saying it would have a minimal impact on port operations.
California recently revoked about 17,000 non-domiciles commercial driver’s licenses for foreign truckers due to new federal requirements.
According to Seroka, almost 20,000 drivers are licensed to do business at the San Pedro Bay ports daily, half of which call at least once a week.
