As another strike at U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports looks more probable and the prospect of new tariffs by President-elect Donald Trump are getting nearer, inbound cargo volume is expected to soar ahead of the uncertainty each development brings.
According to the monthly Global Port Tracker, which is produced for the National Retail Federation (NRF) by maritime trade consultancy Hackett Associates, October imports came in well ahead of expectations set last month.
U.S. ports covered by the Global Port Tracker (excluding the Port of Miami, which has yet to report final data) handled 2.25 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in October, a 9.2 percent jump from the year-ago period. The inbound cargo numbers are well ahead of prior projections of 3.7 percent year-over-year growth to an expected 2.13 million TEUs.
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Ports have not yet reported November’s numbers, but the Global Port Tracker projected the month’s imports to reach 2.17 million TEUs, up 14.8 percent year over year. December is forecast at 2.14 million TEUs, up 14.4 percent annually.
That would bring 2024 to 25.6 million TEUs imported, up 14.8 percent from 2023.
Before October’s three-day dockworker strike and the 2024 presidential election, November had been forecast at 1.91 million TEUs (a 1.1 percent increase) and December at 1.88 million TEUs (growth of 0.5 percent), while the total for 2024 was forecast at 24.9 million TEUs (11.7 percent import growth).
“Either a strike or new tariffs would be a blow to the economy and retailers are doing what they can to avoid the impact of either for as long as they can,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at NRF, in a statement. “We hope that both can be avoided, but bringing in cargo early is a prudent step to mitigate the impact on our industry, consumers and the nation’s economy.”
Gold had already said last month that he expected retailers to pull forward their imports to avoid the possible strike and tariffs.
January 2025, which includes both Trump’s inauguration and the East and Gulf Coast port contract negotiation deadline, is expected to see a bump from the earlier orders. The Global Port Tracker forecasts the month’s inbound cargo volume at 2.2 million TEUs, up 12.2 percent year over year. Just last month, the predictions called for 2.01 TEUs in January, which would have been only a 2.6 percent jump.
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said retailers are under pressure as they front-load cargo to avoid both the disruption of the strike and expected higher costs from the tariffs.
“It is not clear whether [the tariffs] will actually take effect immediately or whether it will take time to implement the tariffs, but shippers are moving up as much cargo as they can before then,” said Hackett, who also indicated “the window to front-load goods on vessels arriving before a potential strike is quickly closing.
Not helping matters when it comes to ocean-borne imports, the contract talks between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX) broke down in November.
“Prospects of reaching a quick agreement on the key sticking point of automation are not looking good,” Hackett said, referring to the port labor contract. In particular, the ILA has railed against the USMX’s push to expand semi-automated rail-mounted gantry cranes across the ports.
“We call on both parties at the ports to return to the table, get a deal done and avoid a strike,” Gold said. “And we call on the incoming administration to use tariffs in a strategic manner rather than a broad-based approach impacting everyday consumer goods.”
The NRF has been a vocal figure in trying to get the ILA and the USMX back to active contract talks. The association led a coalition of 267 other trade groups who co-signed a letter calling on both parties to resume negotiations and agree to a deal.
According to that letter, supply chain stakeholders are still bearing the costs of both the strike mitigation efforts and the post-strike resumption of activities. Additionally, the trade groups argued that the threat of a second strike has caused companies to continually implement mitigation strategies to soften any potential blow to their supply chains.
The Global Port Tracker also shared projections for the three months after January, when the labor and tariff picture are expected to be less volatile.
Inbound cargo volume in February is forecast to decline 4.1 percent to 1.87 million TEUs because of fluctuations in the timing of Lunar New Year shutdowns at Asian factories. March is anticipated to generate a 12.7 percent annual jump in TEUs to 2.17 million, while April TEUs will increase 6.6 percent from the year prior to 2.15 million.
