Declining import volumes at U.S. ports throughout 2025 won’t be improving anytime soon.
The first four months of 2026 will see a continuation of double-digit declines in inbound cargo, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
To kick off the year, January is expected to see a 10.3 percent year over year decline in containers, with a forecast at 2 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs). This would be the first sequential month-over-month increase since July, which was the port’s second-busiest month on record for ocean-borne imports due to retail front-loading ahead of August tariff deadlines.
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Despite the Trump administration lowering tariffs on China by 10 percent ahead of the holiday season, retailers remain concerned—and largely in the dark—about more potential policy shifts.
“Stores are stocked up and ready for a record holiday season but there is still a great deal of uncertainty about what will happen in 2026 with trade policy,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy, NRF, in a statement. “Regardless of what develops, retailers will adjust their supply chains accordingly and strive to ensure that consumers have affordable options when they shop.”
The organizations pointed to recently reduced tariffs on food products like beef, nuts, fruits and coffee as a positive for retailers to kick off the year. But there remain concerns related to the Supreme Court’s expected decision on whether President Donald Trump has authorization to impose the duties under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
Even if the Supreme Court strikes down those tariffs, the Trump administration is likely to seek to reinstate them under other trade tools.
Amid the ongoing uncertain environment, NRF and Hackett projected U.S. ports would handle 1.86 million imported TEUs in February, down 8.5 percent from the prior year. That number drags down further in March to 1.79 million TEUs—a 16.8 percent decline.
April is forecast to cap off the first four months at 1.97 million TEUs of inbound cargo volume, down 10.9 percent from a year ago.
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said in a statement that the effect of rising tariffs on global trade is unlikely to end soon, even as tensions with China appear to ease in the short term.
“We are seeing the results of the tariffs in weakening cargo demand going forward from the fourth quarter of this year and likely into the first half of next year,” Hackett said.
As for October, which excludes data from the Port of Charleston, imports declined 7.9 percent to 2.07 million TEUs.
Ports have not yet reported numbers for November, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.91 million TEUs, down 11.6 percent year over year.
December is forecast at 1.86 million TEUs, plunging 12.7 percent. This would be the slowest overall month since 1.83 million imported containers were handled by American ports in June 2023.
November and December are traditionally slow, the tracker observed. This year’s large year-over-year declines are partly because of the retail front-loading, as well as elevated import totals in late 2024 due to concerns over more port strikes on the East and Gulf Coasts.
Across 2025, top U.S. ports are expected to bring in 25.2 million TEUs, down 1.4 percent from 25.5 million TEUs in 2024.
A report from Descartes released Tuesday mirrored the expectation that November imports will see a sequential decline from October. The supply chain tech company said container imports would decline 5.4 percent from September to 2.18 million TEUs. Volumes dipped 7.8 percent year over year.
The Descartes report said that the November dips were driven largely by a decline in goods from China, as expected. China-origin imports fell 11.3 percent month-over-month and 19.7 percent year-over-year.
According to China’s customs data, exports to the U.S. saw year-over-year declines for the eighth straight month, falling 28.7 percent in November to $33.8 million.
Of the top 10 countries of origin tracked by Descartes, three had a month-over-month increase in import volumes: Germany (9.7 percent), Thailand (6.7 percent) and Italy (1.4 percent).
On a year-over-year basis, Southeast Asian countries saw the strongest export growth to the U.S.: Thailand (27.2 percent), Indonesia (18 percent) and Vietnam (15.4 percent).
