Monthly import cargo volume at major U.S. ports is expected to fall below the 2 million container mark for the rest of the year as most holiday merchandise is already in the country.
According to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, U.S. ports covered by the monthly Global Port Tracker handled 2.32 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in August. That was down 2.9 percent from July’s 2.39 million TEUs, the peak month for inbound cargo volumes in 2025.
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However, August had more activity than expected, with a slight uptick of 0.1 percent over last year’s imports. Last month, NRF and Hackett Associates forecast a 2.28 million-TEU performance for August, which would have been down 1.7 percent year over year.
“This year’s peak season has come and gone, largely due to retailers frontloading imports ahead of reciprocal tariffs taking effect,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at NRF in a statement. “New sectoral tariffs continue to be announced, but most retailers are well-stocked for the holiday season and doing as much as they can to shield their customers from the costs of tariffs for as long as they can.”
Tariffs including 25 percent duties on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities are set to take effect next week and increase in January.
“Ongoing volatility in U.S. tariff policy is creating significant economic uncertainty, with trade volumes expected to see unpredictable shifts over the next four to six months,” Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said in a statement. “Many large companies preemptively imported goods to build up inventories, but as those stockpiles are depleted, the full inflationary impact of the tariffs will become apparent.”
Apparel retailers that saw their inventories accelerate over the summer months include Ralph Lauren, which saw total merchandise jump 18 percent to $1.2 billion in its first quarter ended June 28. Lululemon’s second quarter inventories jumped 21 percent to $1.7 billion and 13 percent on a per-unit basis, with that quarter ending Aug. 3, just ahead of the reintroduction of the reciprocal tariffs on U.S. trade partners.
At American Eagle Outfitters, inventory jumped nearly 10 percent to $593 million in its second quarter, which also closed at the start of August. Inventory at Gap Inc. increased 9 percent to $2.3 billion. And as of July 31, Urban Outfitters garnered a 15 percent surge in inventory to $696 million.
Additionally, Academy Sports + Outdoors saw merchandise inventories increase roughly 16 percent to $16 billion over the year prior as of Aug. 2.
Gap Inc., Urban Outfitters and Academy all acknowledged the accelerated receipts in their respective earnings calls.
The pull-forward from retailers will really start to see effects starting in September.
Ports have not yet reported numbers for September, but the Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.12 million TEUs, down 6.8 percent year over year.
From there, the figures illustrated a prolonged plunge throughout the fourth quarter.
October is anticipated to bring in 1.97 million TEUs, a 12.3 percent year over year decrease. Volumes drop even further in November at a 19.2 percent pace to 1.75 million TEUs, while December is forecast at 1.72 million TEUs, down 19.4 percent annually.
This would mark the slowest month for inbound cargo volumes into the U.S. since 1.62 million TEUs were handled at U.S. ports in March 2023.
Tariffs aren’t the only factor shifting the import trends through the remainder of the year, according to the monthly tracker. The year-over-year percentage declines also account for elevated imports in late 2024, which were driven by concerns over a second strike at East and Gulf Coast ports.
The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEUs, up 3.7 percent from the year prior. The full year is forecast at 24.79 million TEUs, down 2.9 percent from 25.5 million TEUs in 2024.
January 2026 is estimated to reverse the downtrend of the previous months, although cargo declines will still reach 16.1 percent year over year to 1.87 million TEUs. For February 2026, is forecast at 1.77 million TEU, down 12.8 percent.
