Although a three-day strike on the East and Gulf Coast ports threatened to slow down the movement of cargo into the U.S., imports through the nation’s top container ports are still expected to outpace last year’s volumes.
According to the National Retail Federation’s monthly Global Port Tracker, major ports are forecast to handle 2.12 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in October, up 3.1 percent from the year prior.
The projections are slightly higher than last month’s 2.08 million TEU forecast for October—a sign that the dockworker strike may have had less of an impact than initially feared.
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“It was a huge relief for retailers, their customers and the nation’s economy that the strike was short lived,” Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy, NRF. “It will take the affected ports a couple of weeks to recover, but we can rest assured that all ports across the country will be working hard to meet demand, and no impact on the holiday shopping season is expected.”
As for official import results, top U.S. ports handled 2.34 million TEUs in August, up 19.3 percent year over year for the highest volume flowing through the hubs since the record of 2.4 million TEU set in May 2022. The numbers were a slight 0.9 percent increase from July’s 2.32 million and are most likely to represent the two largest months of inbound cargo volume in 2024.
The Ports of New York & New Jersey and Miami have yet to report final data for August.
Retailers had essentially pulled forward the peak shipping season as a combination of factors hit the supply chain at once, be it the impending strike, a possible escalation in freight rates, as well as global port congestion resulting from the longer routes of container vessels avoiding the Red Sea.
“The surge in imports over the past few months has clearly been the result of contingency imports by wholesalers, retailers and industrial companies in anticipation of the East and Gulf Coast port strike rather than a sudden increase in demand,” Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, which produced the tracker for the NRF. “We may see some short-term congestion on the West Coast but nothing significant, and East Coast delays should be limited.”
Ports haven’t reported September numbers yet, but the new projections are tracking for September to bring in 2.29 million TEUs, which would be a 12.9 percent jump year over year. This is lower than the prior month’s September forecast of a 14 percent annual bump to 2.31 million TEUs.
Gold noted that the strike by 45,000 members of the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) wasn’t without its impacts.
“Retailers who brought in cargo early or shifted delivery to the West Coast face added warehousing and transportation costs,” said Gold in a statement. “But the priority now is for both parties to negotiate in good faith and reach a long-term contract before the short-term extension ends in mid-January. We don’t want to face a disruption like this all over again.”
The strike was tabled to Jan. 15, 2025 after the ILA and the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX) reached a tentative agreement on a wage increase and a short-term of the current master contract. The morning the strike took place, the NRF led a coalition in asking President Joe Biden to use “any and all authority” to end the strike, including the use of Taft-Hartley to effectively force the union dockworkers back to work.
The holiday season isn’t anticipated to drive a serious uptick in imports, as most cargo sold during the stretch is already in the U.S. Cargo entering U.S. ports in November is anticipated to be 1.91 million TEUs, up 0.9 percent year over year, and December at 1.88 million TEUs, up 0.2 percent. That would bring 2024 to 24.9 million total TEUs, up 12.1 percent from 2023.
A Jan. 15 strike could still impact inbound cargo volume to start 2025, with January’s expectations coming in at is forecast at 1.98 million TEUs, up 0.8 percent year over year. February is expected to reel in 1.74 million TEUs, down 11.2 percent because of fluctuations in the timing of Lunar New Year shutdowns at Asian factories. Last year, a later Lunar New Year bolstered cargo exiting these countries.
The import numbers come as NRF is forecasting that 2024 retail sales—excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail—will grow between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent over 2023.
The trade association expects to release its 2024 holiday retail sales forecast on Oct. 15.
