DHL Group’s reduced exposure on the trans-Pacific trade lane and a “disproportionately high market share in non-direct U.S. trade lanes” could keep the logistics giant above water during a U.S.-China trade war that doesn’t look like it’s slowing down.
In its first quarter, DHL increased revenue by 2.8 percent year over year to 20.8 billion euros ($23.6 billion), while consolidated net profit jumped 6.2 percent to 786 million euros ($892.5 million).
Diversification has been a key for the company amid the volatility. Although DHL CEO Tobias Meyer indicated that Express business-to-consumer (B2C) shipments have been “notably down” for multiple quarters as the company lowers its percentage of China-to-U.S. flights, the trans-Pacific hit is “relatively small if you compare it with some of our peers.”
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Shipments from China and Hong Kong to the U.S. only comprise 8 percent of total volumes via DHL Express. For DHL Global Forwarding, these shipments represent 8 percent of the ocean freight booked, as well as an even smaller 4 percent of air freight.
Those figures have historically been “partially higher,” according to Meyer.
According to chief financial officer Melanie Kreis, a decrease in China-to-U.S. volumes likely will not be “fully compensated” from growth on other trade lanes, “but it’s a very volatile and moving target.”
Meyer acknowledged negatives that could harm the business, like the tariffs, with the 10-percent baseline duty imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump “still four times higher the effective tariff rate that we had before.” He also noted that the “wait and see” approach of many businesses in April is a cause for concern—exacerbating concerns that DHL Global Forwarding saw EBIT contract a wider-than-expected 23 percent in the first quarter.
But the CEO spoke to the benefits of global supply chain reconfigurations like the intra-Asia moves to reposition inventory, or shifts in delivery modes like going from parcelized shipments to bulk transportation.
“We increasingly see customers thinking about this, that they have manufacturing capacity that currently doesn’t serve the U.S., but is in a country that we currently expect to be in a favorable position as it relates to tariffs,” said Meyer. “That production then is used for exports to the U.S. and the local market being served by production capacity in China obviously also needs employment. That element could indeed be quite positive, because it significantly increases logistics cost, it leads to higher complexity and that’s in tendency, good for us.”
DHL retained its 2025 guidance target of at or above 6 billion euros ($6.8 billion) in operating profit. But the outlook does not cover potential negative or positive impacts of changes in tariff or trade policies.
The Germany-based company did not give insight into the percentage of DHL Express packages that fell under the de minimis exemption, which closes for goods out of China on May 2, but according to Kreis, “we have already reduced our exposure.”
“We do not expect a complete wipeout of the de minimis volume. This volume will, to some extent, find other channels,” said Meyer in the call. “There will certainly be a decline on the e-commerce side, but we do expect other solutions to also take up a certain amount of volume.”
The earnings results came two days after DHL reversed course on its suspension of high-value shipments to U.S. consumers. The about-face occurred after the logistics giant had a “constructive dialogue” with the U.S. government, which raised the formal entry processing threshold into the country back to $2,500 from $800.
“Clarity is important,” said Ram Ben-Tzion, co-founder and CEO of digital shipment vetting platform of Publican. “In the negotiation with the government, it’s not as if there was some sort of agreement off the books to overlook violations. There was clarity on what is expected, and once there is clarity, an organization like the DHL, FedEx or UPS can plan ahead and prepare and see what capacity will allow them.”
With the reversal of the formal threshold, shipments valued between $800 and $2,500 can once again be cleared using the expedited informal entry process. This requires fewer documents and no customs bond, enabling DHL to resume normal operations.
U.S.-bound shipments may still experience transit delays as DHL navigates the reintroduction of the service and clears the current backlog of packages. Ben-Tzion told Sourcing Journal that the flood of packages could still trip the company up as the de minimis suspension goes into effect.
“While [the reversal] will allow them to entertain high-value items $800 to $2,500, the probability of them being able to do the same with $20 packages is slim to none,” he warned.
Meyer said in the earnings call that he believes U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is better prepared for the various changes, but “whether it’s efficiently well prepared is a different question.”
“To be honest, there is still a lot to be worked through. It’s obviously a time of high workload for [the CBP],” said Meyer. “This is not only the de minimis exemption. We have seen the shift from informal into formal clearances, and now the exemption there to reinstate the scope of informal clearances. That also covers some of our concern as it relates to de minimis shipments now falling directly into formal clearances. That impact is much more severe.”
