Air cargo tonnages from mainland China to the U.S. have partially recovered from the double-digit percentage deficits experienced throughout the summer in the wake of the easing of tariff tensions between the countries.
According to data from air cargo market data provider WorldACD, overall tonnage from China to the U.S. has recently averaged “only a few percentage points” below its 2024 level as of week 47 (Nov. 17 to 23).
In late October, the U.S. reduced punitive fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese goods from 20 percent to 10 percent, relieving some pressure on American businesses ordering inventory from China ahead of the holiday season.
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The closure of the de minimis provision has continued to be a burden on U.S.-bound parcels shipped from Hong Kong, where a higher proportion of air cargo had been relatively low-value e-commerce goods. The year-over-year tonnage deficit remains around 15 percent, says WorldACD.
The dips coincide with a slight dip in demand ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday week. On a weekly basis, tonnages to the U.S. from China and Hong Kong dipped by 4 percent and 1 percent, respectively.
Overall tonnages from Asia Pacific origins to the U.S. dipped by 2 percent from the week prior, with WorldACD suggesting that volumes on that trade lane have possibly peaked for this year.
Weighing the wider Asia Pacific markets down were countries that have seen exports to the U.S. booming in recent months, with week-over-week declines out of Vietnam (7 percent), Thailand (5 percent) and Malaysia (14 percent).
However, a report released Monday by international freight forwarder Dimerco Express Group indicates that air freight capacity out of China and Hong Kong is still in an upturn, while space out of most Southeast Asian countries remains tight.
Transit times on U.S. routes originating in northern China have slowed down due to rising cargo volumes and delays in ground processing, the Dimerco report read, while increasing shipment volumes out of eastern China have forced air carriers to reallocate capacity from short-haul to long-haul routes.
WorldACD says Asia Pacific’s volumes to the U.S. are still well ahead of last year at 4 percent, namely due to the shifts in American trade policy.
Vietnam-to-U.S. air cargo is up 52 percent, while cargo out of Singapore and Taiwan have increased 43 percent and 40 percent, respectively. Thailand (37 percent), Indonesia (27 percent) and Malaysia (17 percent) have also seen double-digit annual increases.
The Dimerco report indicates that airline capacity out of Vietnam to the U.S. is expected to tighten in the peak season, with space expected to be limited before the Christmas and New Year period. The company recommends shippers to book shipments three to six days before departure.
The growth in demand across the Asia Pacific markets in recent months has driven spot rate increases ahead of the holiday season.
Average spot rates from Asia Pacific origins to the U.S. have continued rising for six consecutive weeks, increasing in week 47 by a further 3 percent week over week, to $5.63 per kg.
According to WorldACD, which tracks data based on more than 500,000 weekly transactions, the boost was mainly driven by weekly increases from Hong Kong (7 percent), Japan (14 percent), South Korea (6 percent) and Singapore (9 percent). China saw a relatively stable 1 percent jump.
Those increases helped to push up week-over-week average global spot rates by 2 percent to $2.93 per kg, with overall full-market rates rising 1 percent in that time frame, based on a mix of spot and contract rates.
On an annual basis, spot rates from Asia Pacific origins to the U.S. have been “very significantly and consistently lower” since the start of May, when the policy shifts led to the steep drops in U.S. imports from China and Hong Kong.
Average spot rates from countries on the trade lane have been at least 10 percent lower this year since late June, WorldACD says, with most markets seeing rate collapses between 15 percent and 20 percent.
But the recent increases have since helped narrow the year-over-year rate decrease to 8 percent, marking the first time in 22 weeks the metric has reached a single-digit percentage deficit. China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam also saw a series of spot rate jumps to buoy the average rate.
Across the board, air cargo rates increased sequentially for a fifth straight month in October, according to data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Air cargo yields jumped 1.7 percent month over month, although they fell by 4.7 percent compared to the year prior.
In October, IATA indicated that total air cargo volumes increased 4.1 percent year over year, marking the eighth consecutive month of expansion and reaching an all-time high in total cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK).
That month, the Asia-to-North America trade lane saw demand contract 1.4 percent from the year prior, which was the sixth straight month of declines on the route.
