Air cargo demand on the Asia-to-North America trade corridor in November grew for the first time since April, with the holiday season helping boost trans-Pacific trade patterns out of a half-year-long malaise.
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), traffic growth on the trade lane increased 1.8 percent, after demand had contracted for six straight months.
Demand first started its decline in May, reaching double digits amid swift changes in U.S. trade policy, particularly targeted at China.
Related Stories
President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs that were slapped on U.S. trade partners in April started the slowdown, with demand plummeting further after the closure of the de minimis trade provision for Chinese goods in May. Under that trade exemption, shipments with a value of $800 or less no longer enter the U.S. duty free.
The increased demand on the Asia-to-North America route helped prop up total demand across all trade lanes, delivering the second largest increase in 2025.
Measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), air cargo traffic rose 5.5 percent compared to November 2024 levels. This number increases to 6.9 percent for international operations.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, said the November figures were “boosted by shippers prioritizing timely delivery in the lead-up to the year-end holiday season.”
“Globally, the fourth quarter for air cargo was resilient as strategic re-routing of trade shaped performance across key markets,” said Walsh in a statement. “The strong end for 2025 bodes well for the air cargo industry as it enters the new year.”
Ahead of the release, IATA projected that 2025 would see 3.1 percent year over year growth to 282.3 billion CTKs, representing an upward revision from its June forecast of 0.7 percent annual growth.
For 2026, traffic growth is anticipated to see a smaller spike than the full-year projections in 2025, escalating 2.6 percent to a forecast of 289.5 billion CTKs.
IATA said in its 2026 global outlook released in December that the slowed demand increase is in line with an expected softening global trade.
“The slowdown is unlikely to be as pronounced as the general trade deceleration, as air cargo continues to benefit from rising demand for high-value, time-sensitive goods, particularly driven by e-commerce and semiconductors,” the IATA report read. “Persistent global uncertainties around tariffs and supply chain disruptions will reinforce air transport’s role as the most reliable mode of delivery.”
Overall, IATA’s forecast for next year was led by 6 percent growth in the Asia-Pacific region, while Africa, Europe and Latin America should grow around 2 percent.
North America will see declines of 0.5 percent, while the Middle East will stagnate with flat growth.
Freight rate benchmarking provider Xeneta shared a similar position to IATA regarding demand across 2025 and 2026.
Having predicted up to 4 percent market demand growth for 2025, Xeneta sees a more cautious outlook for 2026, forecasting a slightly more modest 2 percent to 3 percent rise in volumes this year.
“When I look at the biggest risks this year, right now I would say it’s more likely we will see something that will put a stopper on the level of air freight growth we have seen in the last two years,” said Niall van de Wouw, chief airfreight officer at Xeneta, in a Monday update. “Overall, the market has been relatively stable, but we are entering a phase when shippers will be looking for better rates and demand may deteriorate in the first quarter of the year.”
Van de Wouw said “something has to give in 2026” from a volume perspective, which could give way to lower air freight rates for shippers this year.
Freight rates already have seen a steep drop-off to kick off 2026, with the global Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) dropping by 14.1 percent in the week to Monday, according to TAC Index. On a year-over-year basis, the BAI00 declined 11.4 percent.
Rates out of Asia saw a serious dip, with outbound routes out of Shanghai plunging 19.9 percent from the week prior—down 6.1 percent year over year.
The rate decline corresponds with cargo airplanes taken out of capacity as airlines adjusted supply after volumes slumped following the end of the peak season. According to air cargo data provider Rotate, freighter capacity declined 10 percent globally week over week, as of Sunday.
Capacity on the Asia-to-North America sank 9 percent during the week, while Asia-to-Europe air cargo capacity declined 4 percent.
