Air cargo demand showed continued strength in November as the holiday season kicked into gear, and airlines benefited from rising e-commerce demand in the U.S. and Europe amid ongoing capacity limits in ocean freight stemming from the Red Sea crisis.
Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), rose by 8.2 percent compared to the year prior, according to monthly data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). This marked the 16th consecutive month of demand growth for air cargo. On a seasonally adjusted basis, demand contracted by 0.5 percent month over month.
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International operations grew 9.5 percent across all trade lanes. The Asia-to-North America route, the largest market based on CTK volumes, saw the highest air cargo demand increase at 13 percent.
2024 was unquestionably a hot year for air cargo on the whole, with the first eight months seeing double-digit growth in demand.
For the full year, the IATA said last month that it expected air cargo demand to increase by 11.8 percent over 2023 totals to 275 billion CTKs worldwide. This represents a rebound following two consecutive years of declining air cargo volumes as the industry adjusted after the Covid-19 pandemic peak.
With such big shoes to fill, 2025 is unlikely to have the excessive CTK growth of 2024. But the IATA still projects healthy growth for the industry even as demand tapers off.
CTK totals are expected to jump another 6 percent in 2025 to 291 billion, while total cargo volumes transported are expected to reach 72.5 million metric tons this year, a 5.8 percent increase from 2024.
“All things considered we are looking to close out 2024 air cargo performance on a profitable note,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, in a statement. “While this strong performance is very likely to extend into 2025, there are some downside risks that must be carefully watched. These include inflation, geopolitical uncertainties and trade tensions.”
Global air cargo capacity, measured in available CTKs (ACTKs), grew by 4.6 percent year over year in November. On a monthly, seasonally adjusted basis, capacity declined by 0.6 percent for the third straight month.
Even as fuel costs plummeted substantially from 2023 levels, at 22 percent, tight market conditions have enabled air cargo rates to accelerate at a 7.8 percent pace from the year prior.
These global air cargo yield (including surcharges) also rose by 5.8 percent over October totals. By the end of November, air cargo yields were 52 percent higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
The increasing yield, from a month-over-month perspective, is driven by several factors, IATA said.
“One is the strong e-commerce demand as the holiday season approaches. Another is the limited air cargo capacity between Asia and North America, and Asia and Europe, due to air space restrictions,” said the November market analysis. “Additionally, ongoing disruptions in sea shipping such as the effective blockade in the Red Sea caused by Houthi rebel attacks on merchant ships, are causing some shippers to choose air transport instead.”
For 2025, the association expects average yield to adjust downwards by 0.7 percent, but still remaining well above pre-pandemic levels. Freight rates (quoted in 2014 dollars/kg) are expected to be $1.34, 6 cents fewer than in 2024 and 24.4 percent below 2014 levels.
To kick off the year, logistics giants like Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), Maersk and DB Schenker have introduced new air freight services along the Europe-to-Asia trade lane.
MSC Air Cargo revealed on LinkedIn that it would launch a direct flight from Amsterdam to Seoul that would begin flights in the first quarter of 2025. Bookings for flights can already be secured. The shipping giant said its road feeder service network will enable companies “anywhere in Europe” to leverage the direct line, even if they aren’t located near Amsterdam.
Top container shipping competitor Maersk has already debuted a new air freight route between Billund Airport in Denmark and Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport in China.
Maersk Air Cargo will use Boeing 767 freighters on the route and will offer six flights scheduled per week, according to a report from China’s state press agency, Xinhua. Cargo will primarily comprise e-commerce and electronics products.
DB Schenker is teaming up with Etihad Cargo to debut a weekly route from Ezhou, China to Frankfurt, Germany route, with a Boeing 767 freighter. The flight will stop at Abu Dhabi, U.A.E. and is also expected to handle an annual cargo volume of 5,200 tons. Cargo will mainly consist of e-commerce shipments, technology, electronics and automotive parts.
