A bipartisan majority of Americans agree that unilaterally raising tariffs on goods from other countries isn’t the way to go.
Both Republicans and Democrats oppose President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to implement new duties worth between 10 percent and 20 percent on products sourced from across the globe, according to recent research from the University of Maryland’s Program for Public Consultation (PPC).
A survey of 4,675 American adults conducted in September allowed respondents to engage in a “policymaking simulation” in which they were given multiple arguments for and against different tariff policies. Surveyed parties across Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, as well as nationally, support the U.S. maintaining low tariffs on goods from other nations.
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According to the program’s director, Steven Kull, while most Americans support continued tariffs on China-made goods, “Large bipartisan majorities support the U.S. continuing to be part of the international agreements for low tariffs within a rules-based system.”
These attitudes have been long-held; since World War II, the U.S. has promoted trade by working with other countries to negotiate low tariffs on a mutual basis, provided that each country follows agreed-upon standards. According to the program’s research, average tariffs have fallen globally from about 22 percent in the 1940s to about 2 percent in 2024.
The research showed that 85 percent of Americans in swing states approve of the U.S. working with other countries to perpetuate the existing system, including 73 percent to 78 percent of Republicans and 86 percent to 93 percent of Democrats. On a national level, an average of 81 percent said they approve of a low-tariff framework, including 74 percent of Republicans and 88 percent of Democrats.
Asked specifically about Trump’s preeminent campaign promise—the across-the-board, 10 percent to 20 percent tariff scheme—PPC presented several arguments for and against the duties. Higher tariffs could generate substantial government revenue (in turn paying for tax cuts), they could stimulate the growth of American manufacturing, and they could create better-paying jobs, the researchers posited. On the other hand, raising tariffs could violate existing trade agreements and spur retaliation by U.S. trading partners, ultimately leading to price hikes.
While about two-thirds of respondents found the arguments for raising tariffs convincing, three-quarters of survey-takers ultimately found the case against the Trump plan more compelling. When finally asked which policy they prefer, just 28 percent to 35 percent of Americans across swing states said they wanted to see tariffs go up, while 64 percent to 71 percent across swing states said they’d like to continue with the current policy. A similar number of national respondents (68 percent) said they would like to see tariffs remain low.
“What’s interesting to me is how many people found those arguments [for tariffs] convincing, and then backed down and said, ‘We probably shouldn’t do that,’” including a large number of Republicans, Kull told Sourcing Journal. “This [survey] was done in a moment in time in the middle of the campaign, when they’re getting a pretty strong signal and a very strong emotional connection with Trump, and still, they said that was probably not a good idea.”
According to Kull, while many respondents found the concept of tariffs appealing in theory, they also quickly recognized the negative impacts that could materialize as a result of an overly aggressive strategy. “They know that American companies could suffer too, that we could lose access to markets that way, and that there will be higher prices,” he said.
Attitudes differ when it comes to tariffs on China, however.
PPC did not survey respondents on Trump’s recent threats to up duties on China-made goods by 10 percent, 60 percent or 100 percent, but it did ask about maintaining the Section 301 tariffs that were implemented during Trump’s first term.
The researchers presented the argument that China has been “blatantly violating international trade rules,” and that tariffs are a means of punishing the country for its misdeeds—a case that 82 percent to 85 percent of bipartisan swing-state respondents agreed with (along with 84 percent of national respondents).
Meanwhile, only 62 percent to 66 percent of Democrats and Republicans across swing states, and 65 percent of national respondents, agreed with the statement that tariffs have been ineffective at changing China’s behavior and have done nothing but raise prices on U.S. consumers. All in all, 71 percent of survey-takers agreed with maintaining the China tariffs.
“In the public discourse, it’s not like there’s a big debate about whether China is breaking the rules—everybody agrees China is breaking the rules,” Kull said.
Notably, the vast majority of Democrats and Republicans in swing states and across the country agree that the U.S. should continue to push for the inclusion of enforceable environmental and labor standards in trade deal negotiations with any country.
“Respondents were informed that such standards in trade agreements are meant to ensure that trade partners cannot get a competitive advantage by having significantly lower standards than the U.S.,” the research said, but “They also evaluated arguments against, including that the U.S. should not try to impose standards on other countries, and that including too many provisions will slow down trade deals.”
When asked whether the U.S. should work to make trade agreements that include enforceable labor standards like child labor bans and guaranteed rights to collective bargaining, bipartisan majorities of 81 percent to 87 percent across swing states said yes. Nationally, 82 percent agreed.
Meanwhile, when asked whether the U.S. should pursue trade deals that include enforceable environmental standards, bipartisan majorities of 76 percent to 82 percent across swing states were in favor. Nationally, 78 percent agreed.
“We’ve been doing this kind of survey for decades, and this is always the big winner,” Kull said. Americans are generally in favor of creating fairer trade agreements, and there’s a large bipartisan resistance to the prospect of American industries being undercut by markets that shirk social standards and environmental responsibilities.
“When you say, well, let’s make [trade policy] work better with higher standards through this rules-based system, there’s an overwhelming positive response on that,” he added.
