GENEVA — Global trade, buoyed by improved business confidence and economic growth in rich and emerging economies, is forecast to grow 7 percent in 2006 compared with 6 percent last year, the World Trade Organization said Tuesday.
Still, the WTO’s chief trade economist, Patrick Low, and the 150-member group’s director-general, Pascal Lamy, cautioned there were risks to the forecast. “A further rise in oil prices is one factor we can’t discount,” Low said, as well as potential interest rate hikes. The growing global imbalances among major trading powers was also cited.
“Persistent imbalances, driven by macroeconomic factors, continue to be a cause of concern in some major economies,” Lamy said.
In such a climate of uncertainty, he said WTO members “must strengthen the global trading system,” and noted one of the best ways to do that is to broker “an ambitious agreement,” in the Doha global trade talks.
The negotiations, which face an end-of-year deadline, have been bogged down because of differences among rich and developing countries over lowering barriers to trade in agriculture and industrial goods.
Last year, according to the agency report released Tuesday, “World Trade 2005, Prospects for 2006,” the value of merchandise exported increased 13 percent to $10.1 trillion, with the top three exporters — Germany, the U.S. and China — posting double-digit gains.
For textiles and apparel, the WTO said based on preliminary estimates, the sector notched “below average expansion of global trade.”
Oil posted the biggest export price increase of 38 percent, and while export prices swelled overall by 6.5 percent, for internationally traded manufactures they rose by 2 to 3 percent, the report said.
Germany was ranked the world’s top merchandise exporter, with shipments up 7 percent to $970.7 billion, followed by the U.S., up 10 percent to $904.3 billion, and China, with a 28 percent increase to $762 billion.
Bloated by sharp price increases, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Russia posted the biggest gains among oil exporters, soaring 42, 36 and 34 percent, respectively.
Senior WTO economist Michael Finger said if China’s export performance is extrapolated over the last five years, “China could be ranked the world’s top exporter before 2010.”
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The U.S. remained the leading global importer, with a 14 percent increase in shipments to $1.7 trillion for a 16.1 percent share of total imports. Germany was next with $774.1 billion, up 8 percent, and in third place was China with $660 billion, up 18 percent.
The fast-growing economy of India, however, registered the biggest percentage increase in imports, which surged by 35 percent to $131.6 billion, followed by Russia with a 28 percent gain to $125.1 billion.