GENEVA — International economic experts from 89 countries have mounting concerns that the collapse of the Doha round of trade talks could trigger a rise in protectionism worldwide, according to a poll by a global business group.
More than 70 percent of the 1,060 economic experts surveyed said they were “concerned” or “extremely concerned” about the collapse in July of the World Trade Organization-sponsored talks after developed and developing countries were unable to reach agreement on cutting farm subsidies and greater market access.
The poll, by the International Chamber of Commerce and the Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, found economists expect a rise in protectionism in Asia and Latin America, and in Western Europe and North America, and more bilateral trade accords.
“The international trade system will face a period of rising protectionism and a resulting loss of export opportunities worldwide,” said Ifo president Hans-Werner Sinn. “Prospects have become clouded for global economic growth, particularly in the least developed countries.”
But Pascal Lamy, WTO director-general, told 400 delegates from 70 countries attending a session of the Inter-Parliamentary Union here on Friday, “July showed us that failure was a distinct possibility,” and he said he was now convinced that “failure is possible.” Lamy stressed there was a need to conclude the talks.
Prior to Lamy’s remarks, senior officials from Brazil, India, the U.S., the European Union and Japan indicated during a panel discussion that positions were still gridlocked over agriculture.
Kamal Nath, India’s minister for Commerce and Industry, said rich countries should stop trade-distorting subsidies and not ask poor countries to pay in concessions for such measures in the round.
Lamy warned that the economic consequences of failure would be “loss of potential growth that new openings in world trade would have allowed.” Failure would have a systemic impact on the global trade system in the “erosion” of collective insurance against protectionism, he noted.
In a speech in Montevideo, Uruguay, last month, Lamy called for “renewed political commitment, leadership and goodwill by all WTO members to prepare the ground for fully fledged negotiations to resume.”
The WTO chief said the specter of failure had resulted in a sense of urgency to resume, but stressed, “At this stage, we are not yet at the point of calling ministers back to the negotiating table, but we are resuming technical work on all issues.”