As Iran’s security forces continue to violently quash the civil unrest taking place across the country, President Donald Trump on Monday issued an order aimed at the nation’s trading partners: stop doing business with Iran, or face the tariff hammer.
Protests erupted late last month throughout Iran due to concerns about the economy and rampant inflation, with Iranians forced to contend with huge price hikes on food and basic necessities. After about two weeks of crackdowns by the government, 500 Iranians—including at least eight children—have been killed, according to the Human Rights Activists New Agency (HRANA).
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In a bid to inhibit the Iranian government’s brutality against its citizens, Trump gave a “final and conclusive” order that any country doing business with Iran will face a 25 percent tariff on imports into the United States.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump hoped that diplomacy would have the desired outcome, but she noted that the president “is unafraid to use the lethal force and might of the United States military if and when he deems that necessary.”
China, India, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates are among Iran’s most prominent trading partners.
Trump’s tariff saber-rattling may become less effective after this week if the Supreme Court—which is scheduled to release a new batch of decisions on cases heard in 2025 on Wednesday—announces an unfavorable ruling for the president’s International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) duties.
The high court released its first decisions of the year on Friday, but the much-anticipated ruling on Trump’s tariff scheme was not among them.
Importers aren’t the only ones waiting with bated breath on a decision. The president himself has made his anxieties about the case’s outcome known in recent weeks, taking to Truth Social frequently to warn the public that a ruling against the tariffs could spell disaster for the U.S. economy.
“The actual numbers that we would have to pay back if, for any reason, the Supreme Court were to rule against the United States of America on Tariffs, would be many Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and that doesn’t include the amount of ‘payback’ that Countries and Companies would require for the Investments they are making on building Plants, Factories, and Equipment, for the purpose of being able to avoid the payment of Tariffs,” the president Truthed on Monday. He was alluding to the investment commitments foreign nations like Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, the United Kingdom and the European Union have made as a part of trade deals with the U.S.
“When these Investments are added, we are talking about Trillions of Dollars! It would be a complete mess, and almost impossible for our Country to pay,” the president wrote. “Anybody who says that it can be quickly and easily done would be making a false, inaccurate, or totally misunderstood answer to this very large and complex question.”
Trump wrote that it may not be possible to dispense refunds on the duties given that the dollar amount would be so great, and he said it could take “many years to figure out what number we are talking about and even, who, when, and where, to pay.”
Mincing no words, Trump concluded, “if the Supreme Court rules against the United States of America on this National Security bonanza, WE’RE SCREWED!”
Trump’s sentiments and apparent panic stood in contrast to the words of his own Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, who said over the weekend that the agency is equipped to issue refunds to importers that are owed in the event that the Supreme Court concludes the IEEPA tariffs are illegal.
“It won’t be a problem if we have to do it, but I can tell you that if it happens—which I don’t think it’s going to—it’s just a corporate boondoggle,” he told Reuters, invoking the name of Costco, one of the highest-profile retailers suing the federal government for tariff refunds.
The Treasury Secretary argued that consumers have felt “very little” impact in the form of price hikes since the tariffs came into play—though inflation-weary shoppers have said otherwise.
As of Jan. 9, the Treasury’s general account opening balance was about $774 billion. Customs and Border Protection data from mid-December shows that IEEPA duties collected totaled $133.5 billion, representing 60 percent of all the tariffs collected by CBP last year.
Bessent told the outlet that if refunds are in order, they’d be doled out over time—weeks, months or even over a year—not right away.
