China’s exports had a surprise decline in October, shrinking 1.1 percent to $303.4 billion—the weakest output for the country since February.
A Reuters survey had anticipated 3 percent growth, even as the country’s trade war with the U.S. lingers.
The unexpected showing is a major reversal from China’s export figures in September, which rose 8.3 percent to $328.6 billion, according to data from the country’s General Administration of Customs.
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As has been the case for months since the U.S. slapped heavier tariffs on Chinese goods back in April, shipments destined for American soil saw yet another steep plunge, holding down China’s total exports.
Exports to the U.S. declined 25.2 percent in October from the same month a year earlier to $34.9 billion, marking the seventh consecutive month of double-digit declines, the customs data said.
China’s trade surplus with the U.S. came in at $24.8 billion in October, rising from $22.8 billion a month ago.
Although Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping concluded the month with a meeting that knocked the punitive fentanyl tariff down from 20 percent to 10 percent—suggesting more of a normalization of trade between the countries—the average tariff rate on Chinese goods sits at roughly 47 percent. This is still higher than duties levied prior to April, when the trade lane between the countries began to take a hit.
Throughout the summer, U.S. shippers had often front-loaded orders from China into the country ahead of numerous tariff deadlines and extended trade truces to get their holiday season merchandise in earlier, suggesting another reason for the October export performance.
But while the U.S. is the chief culprit for the overall weakening of exports, other markets that had seen relative strength in September did not have the same growth in October. Shipments to all nations except the U.S. rose only 3.1 percent to $270.4 billion.
Collectively, the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) imported 11 percent more goods from China than it did in the year prior, bringing in $53.3 billion in product. But one month ago, exports to the ASEAN countries amounted to a stronger 15.6 percent growth to $53.7 billion.
Similarly, the European Union only took in 0.9 percent more exports from China, or $43.9 billion. In September, the E.U. imported $48 billion in goods, a 14.1 percent year-over-year increase.
When accounting for all their individual countries, ASEAN and the E.U. are the two largest markets for Chinese exports, with the U.S. coming in third.
And Africa, a market that brought in a whopping 56.4 percent more goods from China last month, saw a more subdued 10.5 percent increase to $17.7 billion in October.
Other markets like Japan (5.7 percent), South Korea (13 percent), the U.K. (5.2 percent) and Canada (10.1 percent) all took in fewer of China’s goods during the month.
Ironically, a day before the figures were released, Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc highlighted China’s export growth as a main factor in the ocean carrier’s projections that container volumes would grow 4 percent in 2025, ahead of a prior range of 2 percent to 4 percent.
“Given the widely available production capacity in China and the very competitive products that are being exported, we do not expect this trend of accelerated export growth from China to stop,” Clerc said in a Thursday earnings call. “The momentum is strong.”
Nevertheless, for the first 10 months of the year, China’s exports are up 5.4 percent from January-to-October period in 2024, surpassing $3.1 trillion. This is the fastest the sourcing superpower has exceeded that mark.
Exports weren’t the only area that saw surprise weakness.
Imports into China also failed to reach forecasts in October, with growth coming in at just 0.9 percent to $215.3 billion. Reuters projected a 3.2 percent increase. The country has been enduring sluggish consumer spending, alongside a prolonged downturn in the property sector.
Other internal signs have been prevalent that a contraction in exports was possible.
Data released from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) last week indicating that manufacturing activity slowed down for the seventh consecutive month.
At the time, the agency had attributed the contraction to the country’s Golden Week holiday—when factories and businesses closed to start the first eight days of October—as well as the more complex global trade environment.
