The second half of October has delivered a strong rebound in ocean freight rates as more carriers are successfully blanking sailings and implementing general rate increases (GRIs).
According to data from the Freightos Baltic Index released Wednesday morning, Asia-to-U.S. West Coast prices increased 20 percent from the week prior to $2,027 per 40-foot equivalent unit (FEU). Similarly, voyages to the East Coast saw container prices escalate 14 percent to $3,500 per FEU.
For trans-Pacific journeys to the West Coast, these spikes compound on the previous week’s growth of 18 percent, Freightos said. Asia-to-East Coast ocean freight rates saw a minor uptick of 2 percent in the week prior to Oct. 22.
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Over the past two weeks, the price increases have been strong on the Asia-to-Northern Europe route as well. Wednesday’s data revealed freight rates on this route increased 15 percent to $2,267 per FEU—on top of the 13 percent increase experienced the week prior.
Blank sailings have only gotten more prevalent as ocean carriers aimed to stop months of declines in freight rates after a softer-than-usual peak shipping season. The softness was largely due to shippers front-loading goods into the U.S. ahead of the Trump administration’s implementation of country-specific tariffs in August.
October has seen 93 blank sailings, up from 58 in September, according to data from maritime research firm Drewry, with container capacity reduced by roughly 7 percent month over month.
Alongside October’s cancellations, the carriers’ recent introduction of GRIs in mid-October has kept rates afloat. Major carriers implemented an average GRI of $700 per FEU on Oct. 15.
Despite the current lull in demand, East-to-West container rates have for the most part sustained their mid-October GRI gains, according to Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos.
“These increases push prices back to about mid-September levels on these trades, when rates likewise rebounded briefly on GRIs,” said Levine in the Wednesday update. “Prices are now well above October 2023 levels after approaching parity with pre-Red Sea crisis rates a couple weeks ago. To start November, some carriers may introduce additional GRIs whose success may likewise depend on effective capacity management.”
According to Drewry, carriers are planning to implement new GRIs on Nov. 1 and Nov. 15 to secure higher prices before the effect of the current rate increases completely fades away.
In one recent example, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) announced new freight all kinds (FAK) rates effective Nov. 1 across several Asia-to-Europe routes. The increase will be $2,700 for FEUs headed to Northern Europe, $3,000 for those to the East Mediterranean and $3,200 on average for West Mediterranean-bound containers.
The rate increase coincides with a potential 100 percent tariff increase on Chinese goods levied by the U.S. President Donald Trump threatened that he would place this duty on Nov. 1, which would likely lead to a further dearth in activity on the China-to-U.S. trade lane, possibly calling for more capacity cuts. However, Trump is meeting with his counterpart President Xi Jinping on Thursday morning, in the hopes of striking a new trade deal.
Looking ahead, prognosticators seem to be shrugging off Trump’s rhetoric after numerous extensions have pushed back any triple-digit tariffs from going into effect.
November is expected to see a bounce back in capacity (8 percent) and fewer cancellations (53 blank sailings), according to Drewry, which could lead to another decline in rates.
Of the major alliances, the Ocean Alliance of CMA CGM, Cosco Shipping, Orient Overseas Container Lines (OOCL) and Evergreen are expected to have the most blank sailings for the month. Fourteen percent of their voyages were withdrawn for the period of Oct. 27 to Nov. 30.
As for air freight, rates on the trans-Pacific route are inching up again.
The Freightos Air Index indicates that air cargo rates from China to North America have increased 6 percent from the week prior to $5.64 per kg—their highest sustained level since March—ahead of the tariffs. On a two-week basis, these rates have inched up 10 percent.
Southeast Asia to North America rates have climbed 3 percent in the last two weeks to $5.14 per kg. And Trans-Atlantic rates have increased 9 percent to $1.85 per kg, their highest level since June.
“Some experts are skeptical there will be much of an air peak season this year due to trade war front-loading and impacts on e-commerce volumes,” said Levine. “But if climbing rates do signal the start of the seasonal rush, it is muted compared to a year ago when prices were already at about $7.00 per kg.”
Data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) mirrored this trend in September, with rates jumping 1.3 percent month over month for the largest such increase since April. Like the Freightos Air Index, IATA’s data illustrated that yields were still down 5.5 percent from September 2024 figures.
