Import volume at major U.S. ports is forecast to see its first month-over-month gain in six months during January as shippers look to get out in front of February’s Lunar New Year in China.
But the wider annual downward trends will persist as inbound cargo volumes are expected to decline through April, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and trade consultancy Hackett Associates.
With volume forecast at 2.11 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs), January is expected to see a 6 percent jump from December’s 1.99 million TEUs entering U.S. ports. On a year-over-year basis, imports would still be down 5.3 percent year over year.
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“There should be a brief bump in imports this month ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but we’re otherwise headed into the post-holiday shipping lull that comes each year,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at NRF in a statement.
February is forecast at 1.94 million TEUs, down 4.6 percent year over year. March could see a steeper drop at 12.4 percent to 1.88 million TEUs. April is expected to decline 8.1 percent to 2.03 million TEUs.
The downtrend is anticipated to end in May, with a projected 6.2 percent year-over-year gain to 2.07 million TEUs. That increase follows a larger-than-normal drop of 6.25 percent last May, in which retailers scrambled to cancel or postpone bookings into after the U.S. placed tariffs on global trade partners.
The expected numbers to kick off 2025 follow a slower-than-usual November and December.
The two months were impacted by many retailers front-loading goods into the U.S. to avoid the tariffs. Those declines also reflected a strong close to 2024, where gateways also experienced elevated import levels due to both front-loading ahead of President Donald Trump’s inauguration and concerns over strikes at the East and Gulf Coast ports.
November and December are traditionally slow, but the year-over-year declines are partly because imports in late 2024 were elevated by concerns over port strikes. In addition, many retailers imported cargo earlier than usual in 2025 to avoid tariffs.
U.S. ports handled 2.02 million TEUs November, down 6.5 percent year over year. December’s 1.99 million TEUs represented a 6.6 percent annual decline.
“Retailers had a busy holiday season and are assessing what’s ahead in 2026 so they can keep supply chains running smoothly to ensure consumers can find the products they want at prices they can afford,” Gold said in a statement. “Retailers are hoping for more stability and certainty, especially regarding tariffs and trade policy, in 2026 to help ensure better supply chain operations to meet consumer needs.”
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said the impact on cargo imports in 2026 is likely to still be affected by trade policy, followed what he called “chronic uncertainty” related to the tariffs.
“As 2026 begins, we see a world increasingly focused on protecting domestic industries and addressing perceived trade imbalances,” Hackett said. “This approach has raised questions about the future of free trade and international economic cooperation.”
Despite the tumultuous headlines throughout 2025 and wider concerns over the U.S. shift in tariff policy, import volume declines are not anticipated to be as serious as initially anticipated when the tariffs first took effect last spring.
According to the Global Port Tracker, the 2025 year is forecast to see 25.4 million TEUs of inbound cargo volume, down 0.4 percent from 25.5 million TEUs in 2024.
