President Donald Trump on Thursday threatened to impose additional tariffs and potential sanctions on Mexico for breaking an 81-year-old water-sharing treaty with the United States that he said was “stealing the water from Texas farmers.”
Under the 1944 treaty, Mexico must send 1.75 million acre-feet of water, or more than 570 billion gallons, from the Rio Grande through a network of dams and reservoirs every five years. According to data from the International Boundary and Water Commission, a binational body created by the United States and Mexico to regulate water distribution between the two countries, Mexico has so far sent less than 30 percent of the required water under the current five-year cycle, which ends in October.
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Writing on Truth Social, Trump accused Mexico of failing to provide 1.3 million acre-feet of water, or more than 420 billion gallons, which he said was “very unfair.”
“I will make sure Mexico doesn’t violate our Treaties, and doesn’t hurt our Texas Farmers,” he posted. “Just last month, I halted water shipments to Tijuana until Mexico complies with the 1944 Water Treaty. My Agriculture Secretary, Brooke Rollins, is standing up for Texas Farmers, and we will keep escalating consequences, including TARIFFS and, maybe even SANCTIONS, until Mexico honors the Treaty, and GIVES TEXAS THE WATER THEY ARE OWED!”
Responding in another social media post, this time on X, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum acknowledged the shortfall, writing in Spanish that the Central American nation has been complying with its treaty obligations “to the extent water is available” but that a three-year drought has severely impeded its ability to do so. She said that her government sent a “comprehensive proposal” to U.S. officials, also on Thursday, to address Texas’s water supply in a manner that would be amenable to both countries.
“I am confident that, as on other issues, an agreement will be reached,” she added.
Large swaths of Mexico have been experiencing long-term drought, largely due to a lack of rain. Nearly 76 percent of the country faced unusually dry conditions through the end of May 2024, according to the North American Drought Monitor. Researchers have blamed the worsening trend of heat waves on human-induced climate change, a phenomenon that Trump has deemed a hoax.
Any water-related levies would be in addition to the 25 percent fee on Mexican imports crossing the U.S. border—the result, Trump has said, of Mexico not doing enough to halt the flow of drugs and migrants into the United States—albeit with a carveout on products traded under the free-trade U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Mexico, like Canada, has been spared from the 10 percent “global” reciprocal tariffs.
Tensions over water distribution between the United States and northern Mexican states are a longstanding problem. They came to a head during Trump’s first term in 2020 when Mexican farmers took control of the Boquilla dam in the border state of Chihuahua in an effort to block water deliveries to Texas, resulting in a standoff with the Mexican National Guard that killed one woman and injured a man.
Trump appears pleased with his strategy of rewriting global trading relationships through tariffs, though the whipsawing markets, mired in uncertainty and chaos, may not agree.
“We are doing really well on our TARIFF POLICY,” he wrote Friday morning. “Very exciting for America, and the World!!! It is moving along quickly.” He signed the missive with his initials, DJT.
