The cycle has swung in favor of jeans, and vendors don’t foresee any dip in the year ahead. Their main concern is how the addition of new names into the category will play out.
“All the retailers are jockeying to find what they consider to be the right mix,” said Michael Silver, president of Silver Jeans, based in Winnipeg, Manitoba. “For every three new ones, there are three old ones left behind. It’s a phase that we’re going through.”
Mark Wiltzer, chief executive officer at Miss Sixty, said he hopes to see more diversity in retail assortments in 2005.
“Everyone’s holding the same brands,” he said. “If one of the brands falls through, I think it could be cause for concern.”
While Sixty and Silver are relative veterans, the perspective of newcomers is different. Retailers are ready to test them, but executives for the fledgling firms said the buys aren’t necessarily that big.
“Many buyers buy a certain amount based on a formula surrounding how long the denim company has been in business,” said Michael Ball, owner of Rock & Republic, a two-year-old denim line.
Ball said he thinks he’s pulling ahead of that trend, though, and already has booked $7 million wholesale in spring shipments.
High-end vendors said they anticipate continued growth.
“The selling recently has been unbelievable,” said Rick Crane, director of sales and merchandising for Seven For All Mankind. “The premium market only represents about 1 or 2 percent of the denim category, but we’re just going to continue to grow. We’re just at the tip of the iceberg.”
Jeans retailing for $50 or more represent 3 percent of the $5.26 billion jeans market, according to STS Market Research, based in Cambridge, Mass.
Crane said his brand’s sales are 30 percent ahead of last year’s levels.
David Frankel, president of the U.S. operations of Mavi, said increased consumer awareness of what goes into high-end denim has helped boost demand.
“Two-hundred dollars for jeans is crazy,” Frankel said. “There’s got to be great reason and value in the product.”
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Mavi is approaching that price with the Nomad label, a spin-off launched last month that retails for as much as $168.
Jeans vendors continue to focus on color and wash. More brands are preparing to roll out superskinny legs.
Wash types are fragmented, with consumers looking for a more personalized appearance. As a result, Frankel said, the wash story will likely be bipolar for 2005: “There are two styles that are very important: The clean look and the distressed look.”
He said he expects cropped jeans and Caribbean colors to be a driver for spring.
Seven For All Mankind plans to focus on white jeans for spring, demand for which Crane said “has exploded for us.” For fall, the company expects trouser-cut pants, styled more like dress pants than traditional five-pocket jeans, to be important. The company’s planning to roll out a new, high-waisted style called the “Jagger.”
Zana-Di, the junior denim brand, plans to expand its offerings of tops and activewear next year, said owner Assad Jebara.
At Jordache, which offers both a premium brand and a mass-priced iteration of itself at Wal-Mart stores, the company will continue its focus on the extremes of the market, said president Liz Berlinger.
“There are still pockets that are showing growth, but they appear to be the very low end and the very high end — fortunately, we’re in both,” she said.