2025 has been defined by tariff turmoil, threatening global industry and export sectors across the globe.
Fashion has been at the forefront of the duty dilemma, with manufacturers and exporters of footwear, apparel and textiles facing new, double-digit tariffs. The denim sector is no exception to the sourcing shakeups prompted by an evolving tariff regime, and in fact, it’s been caught up in the maelstrom.
One of the most popular apparel product categories in the United States, about 85 percent of consumers wear denim and own an average of 11 pairs, according to 2025 data from Cotton Incorporated.
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The U.S. represents the biggest market for denim on earth, in fact, and is projected to account for over 22 percent of the global market by the end of this year, driven by the cultural connection consumers have with products like jeans, a Cognitive Market Research report showed.
Beyond the U.S. market, global demand for denim products is driving up their production. By the end of 2025, the global market for denim is slated to reach a whopping $120 billion, and by 2033, it will balloon to over $161 billion, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 3.75 percent during that nine-year period, the report said.
While the market for denim continues to boom, tariffs nonetheless threaten a bust.
The top denim producing countries—China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Turkey, India, Egypt, Mexico and more—are all currently subject to, or under threat of, punishing tariffs that could hamper the production and export of denim and jeans to the U.S. market.
China, the world’s largest denim supplier, is engaged in a three-month tariff détente with the U.S. The country currently faces 10 percent duties across the board, but that rate will jump to 30 percent if an alternative trade agreement isn’t brokered by early November.
Meanwhile, Pakistan, which has long been a bastion of denim production, housing high-profile mills like Naveena and Soorty, now faces 19 percent duties on U.S. imports—a 10 percent reduction from President Donald Trump’s previously stated rate announced on “Liberation Day” on April 2, but nonetheless, a sizable jump.
Turkey, home to denim production stalwarts like Isko and Orta, saw its tariff rate upwardly revised from April, from 10 percent to 15 percent. Egyptian suppliers, which have been increasingly working alongside Turkish firms in denim production through sizable direct investments to up manufacturing capacity, will face a 10 percent universal baseline tariff—the lowest rate available to U.S. trade partners. Nonetheless, with new synergies being developed (Turkish ready-made garment manufacturer Denim Rise announced it would invest $8.8 million in a new factory within Egypt earlier this year, while Turkey’s Eroğlu Holding said in 2024 that it plans to establish a $40 million factory in the same industrial zone), the new tariffs call into question the benefits of cross-border cooperation.
For India, now the third most utilized clothing production base for U.S. companies (surpassing Bangladesh as a destination for American brands for the first time in 2024, according to the U.S. Fashion Industry Association), Trump’s tariff treatment will be bruising. The country currently faces 50 percent tariffs on exports to the American market—the amalgamation of a 25 percent “reciprocal” duty rate and a punitive tax levied by the administration to account for India’s purchase of Russian oil.
Nearby Bangladesh faces 20 percent duties—a downgrade from the 35 percent announced in April, but still a chilling burden for a country which relies so heavily on the read-made garments sector, which represents about 85 percent of the country’s total exports, sending $7.4 billion in apparel to the U.S. last year alone.
The Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association called the new tariffs an “existential threat” to the sector. Some industry groups have characterized Bangladesh as the second-largest global exporter of denim to Europe and the U.S.—a hard-earned distinction that could be jeopardized by tariff hits to the country’s broader apparel industry.
Mexico, which has seen its apparel sector, and its denim production capacity more specifically, blossom in recent years, has seen its future as a U.S. free-trade agreement partner called into question—a fact that will have massive ramifications on cross-border trade.
Products not covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) are currently subject to 25 percent tariffs with a threat of 30 percent if the U.S. and Mexico aren’t able to reach a trade truce before Nov. 1. Apparel and footwear imports—including denim and jeans—are covered products under USMCA, meaning that they will continue to enter the country duty free. However, they must meet specific rules of origin, meaning that their inputs, like yarns or fabrics, must originate in the U.S., Mexico or Canada to qualify for those benefits.
All countries involved in trading denim products with the U.S., with the exception of free-trade agreement partners, will face higher duties.
Lesotho, once a small-but-mighty powerhouse of denim production characterized as the “denim capital of Africa,” saw its free-trade status with the U.S. evaporate overnight as the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) expired on Sept. 30. Now, the country will see 15 percent tariffs on exports including denim unless the Trump administration or Congress opts to renew the trade preference program.
With America’s allies and competitors alike now subject to shifting trade tides, it’s yet to be seen how Western firms will revamp their sourcing structures. Some may attempt to weather the storm by sticking with the partners they know, regardless of new duties, in the interest of long-term investment.
But price increases are imminent, if they haven’t taken effect already, as evidenced by recent earnings announcements. American shoppers stand to see higher MSRPs at retail this season, and that includes denim and jeans.
Dr. Sheng Lu, professor of fashion and apparel studies at the University of Delaware, reviewed the pricing and merchandising of jeans sold by Gap, H&M, Kohl’s, Lee, Levi’s, Macy’s, Nordstrom, Target, Walmart and Zara in the U.S. retail market between May 1 and Sept. 30, and found that most have already raised their selling prices—though “the magnitude varied significantly.”
The biggest price hikes—over 30 percent—were visible among fast fashion retailers like Zara and H&M, while the department stores and specialty retailers “raised their prices more modestly,” he said, noting that the increases were on average less than 10 percent.
“One reason is that fast-fashion retailers rely more heavily on man-made fibers, including in many of their denim products, which face higher tariff rates than jeans made from 100 percent cotton,” Lu said. “Nevertheless, fast-fashion retailers continue to demonstrate competitiveness in terms of their absolute price levels.”
In addition to raising prices, retailers are also offering fewer discounts.
Compared with data from the same period a year ago, for example, Zara and H&M only sold 23 percent of jeans at a discount this year, compared to 51 percent during May through September 2024. Specialty stores like Gap saw similar patterns—86 percent discounted denim sold through in 2025, compared to 96 percent last year.
Levi’s, too, drew down on sales, selling 82 percent of jeans at promotional rates this year compared with 90 percent last year. Target’s discount denim sales dropped 10 percent year over year, from 70 percent to 60 percent, while Nordstrom’s dropped from 56 percent in 2024 to 35 percent in 2025—a significant evolution in sales strategy for the heritage department store.
“This suggests that brands and retailers are becoming more cautious about protecting their profit margins, especially given the limited flexibility to raise selling prices further,” Lu explained.
Perhaps not surprisingly, retailers aren’t re-upping on orders as frequently, either.
“Tariff uncertainty has disrupted supply chains, leading most retailers to report lower product replenishment rates in 2025 (May–September) than in 2024 over the same period,” Lu said. “For example, in 2024, between 40 percent and 60 percent of jean SKUs were restocked at both specialty stores and fast-fashion retailers from May to September. However, in 2025 this rate dropped significantly to around 30 percent.”
That should cause some consternation among eagle-eyed economists, sourcing agents, retailers and shoppers alike. Given its status as a “staple product” for American shoppers, the academic said, “we typically see frequent replenishment for jeans.”
This article was published in SJ Denim’s fall issue. Click here to read more.
