Growth in the global contract logistics market is expected to decelerate in 2025, with the industry set to expand 3.3 percent to 305.4 million euros ($359.3 million), down from 3.6 percent last year.
This year, the Asia Pacific region is expected to carry the growth load at 5.9 percent to 116.2 billion euros ($136.7 billion), according to a June report from Transport Intelligence. This would further widen the gap the region has over its North American and European counterparts, which are expected to grow 2.1 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively.
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Europe, which hosts the headquarters of various third-party logistics providers (3PLs) that offer contract logistics including DHL, CMA CGM’s Ceva Logistics, Kuehne + Nagel, Geodis and DSV, would still have the second largest market at 90.4 billion euros ($106.3 billion). North America, where companies like GXO, UPS and Ryder are headquartered, comes in third at 79 billion euros ($92.9 billion).
Transport Intelligence attributes its slower growth estimates largely to the shifts in trade policy implemented by the U.S., which have at times disrupted supply chains and reduced demand for outsourced logistics services.
“A downgrade in global GDP growth, particularly in trade-dependent sectors such as manufacturing and retail, directly constrains volumes handled by contract logistics providers,” the report said.
Distribution remains the dominant segment among service demands, representing nearly 59 percent of the market in 2024. The segment is expected to grow 3.5 percent in 2025, ahead of warehousing (3.2 percent) and value-added services (2.5 percent).
India is the biggest opportunity area for contract logistics over the next few years, according to Transport Intelligence. The market is forecast to record a 12.8 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2029, which would expand the sector’s value in the country to as much as 25.4 billion euros ($29.9 billion).
According to the report, DHL Supply Chain, the contract logistics wing of DHL Group, is by far the highest revenue driver in the sector. The unit generated 17.7 billion euros ($20.8 billion) in 2024, nearly doubling that of top competitor GXO, which reeled in 10.8 billion euros ($12.8 billion).
Rounding out the top five firms in the industry including Ceva Logistics, UPS and Maersk. Ceva generated 6.8 billion euros ($8 billion), UPS brought in 5.95 billion euros ($7 billion) and Maersk’s contract arm took in 5.7 billion euros ($6.8 billion).
With DSV’s $16 billion acquisition of DB Schenker in place, the freight forwarder is expected to leapfrog UPS and Maersk into fourth place in total revenue.
New DHL Supply Chain NA, GXO CEOs could set table for market growth
The “big two” of contract logistics providers have had recent shakeups up top that will be sure to impact the North American landscape.
In August, DHL Supply Chain North America CEO Patrick Kelleher will take the reins as CEO of GXO, succeeding retiring chief executive Malcolm Wilson in the role.
Kelleher had led strategic initiatives at DHL spanning transportation and supply chain planning, while overseeing the segment’s deployment of advanced robotics throughout the warehouse, including the Boston Dynamics Stretch robot and the Locus Robotics LocusBots.
With Kelleher now at GXO, DHL Group elevated Mark Kunar to the role of DHL Supply Chain North America CEO.
Kunar had served as the unit’s chief financial officer and chief strategy officer before his immediate promotion into the role, where he will report to Oscar de Bok, CEO of the global unit of DHL Supply Chain.
As CEO, Kunar will be responsible for managing the business of 52,000 employees across the U.S. and Canada.
According to DHL, Kunar’s immediate focus will be to manage the integration of the newly acquired businesses into the DHL Supply Chain portfolio. Kunar had already been responsible for the development and implementation of the North America strategy to facilitate growth of products and sectors in the region.
The company says Kunar played a “pivotal” role in the company’s recent acquisitions in the North American market, with DHL Supply Chain acquiring returns solutions provider Inmar Supply Chain Solutions and e-commerce fulfillment provider IDS Fulfillment earlier this year.
“Customer supply chain needs are creating a transformative environment, necessitating innovation and adaptability to thrive in the current landscape,” Kunar said in a statement. “This role comes at a pivotal time, and we will use our expertise and product solutions to adapt and grow, ensuring that we remain a key partner to our customers.”
