Economic upheaval, geopolitical unrest and trade turmoil have defined 2025. Shoppers are feeling squeezed, brands and retailers are rewriting their sourcing and inventory planning playbooks, and still, certainty about the future remains highly elusive.
With all that as a backdrop, a new study from AlixPartners asks, “Is anyone having fun yet?”
The answer from 1,000 American consumers and 100 executives in the transportation, consumer products and retail sectors is a resounding no, according to the global financial consulting firm’s recent research on e-commerce, conducted between May 31 and June 3.
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In fact, the online shopping realm is experiencing the most disruption it’s seen in more than a decade as tariffs prompt shoppers to pull back on purchases and retailers restrict access to free shipping. E-commerce purchases delivered to shoppers’ homes declined significantly from 2024, with apparel and footwear shipments falling 4 percent and cosmetics, furniture, home furnishings and large electronics falling by 10 percent year over year.
President Donald Trump’s tariff regime has proven to be a lynchpin in consumers’ decision-making when it comes to online spending. More than one-third (34 percent) of shoppers surveyed said they have delayed purchases because of ambivalence about pricing this year, and two-thirds said they planned to find American-made alternatives if prices on foreign goods increase by 10 percent or more (20 percent also said they were intent on buying domestic products). Meanwhile, 28 percent of respondents said they had attempted to evade the added cost of new duties by pulling forward their purchases.
“Elevated consumer awareness of tariffs is clearly flowing through into buying decisions,” said Chris Considine, a partner in AlixPartners’ retail practice. “You can see how people are timing their purchases and the conscious effort among a sizeable minority to ‘Buy American’.”
Tariffs haven’t just spooked shoppers; retailers and transportation executives also said the economic anxiety caused by trade policy coupled with the added costs of fulfillment have prompted them to reexamine their business models.
Fast, free or cheap shipping long ago became the golden standard for e-commerce companies, and consumers’ expectations are only rising as they become more price conscious. In fact, 97 percent of those surveyed said that free shipping impacts their decisions about what to buy, and 77 percent said it greatly impacts their choices—a full 10 percentage points higher than last year.
Most shoppers expect their packages to arrive within 3.5 days, and while 68 percent of the retail and transportation executives surveyed said they could hit that target, 46 percent said they’re falling short of the expected delivery time. With 76 percent also saying that their per-package delivery costs have increased over the past year, 72 percent of decision-makers said e-commerce is not accretive to their profitability.
It’s no wonder, then, that 85 percent also admitted that reducing costs per order trumps other objectives like improving service levels. And with costs stacking up, 49 percent of executives said their firms had increased the minimum purchase value or required club membership—or both—to qualify for free shipping. They’re also tightening up their return policies and encouraging shippers to engage in omnichannel services, like in-store returns or pick-ups.
Notably, the biggest way executives are tackling new costs to last-mile shipping is by diversifying their relationships with third-party delivery providers. Half of them said they’d augmented their carrier portfolios, with a full 40 percent saying they’d shifted some volume over to FedEx and UPS, the biggest players in the space, over the past 12 months.
“Carriers are feeling the pinch as shoppers reconsider and shippers diversify to lower costs,” said Marc Iampieri, Global co-lead of AlixPartners’ logistics and transportation practice. “Optimizing your distribution network is the big lever for retailers, and they are pulling it hard, adding more pressure on the carriers.”
According to the report’s writers, the manner in which carriers adjust to these new pressures stands to become “one of the most consequential stories in e-commerce in the years ahead,” given that so many companies are diversifying, leaving each of them with a smaller piece of the pie.
What’s more, consumers are most apt to blame carriers when their expectations of an e-commerce experience aren’t met. While 43 percent said they blame the shipper—the brand or retailer—and the carrier equally, 37 percent said they tend to blame carriers for their disappointment.
