Retailers and shoe brands can blame tariff-induced price hikes for a potential decline in footwear spending as they look ahead to the 2025 holiday season.
That’s according to PwC’s 2025 Holiday Outlook survey. The consultancy firm is projecting a 7 percent to 10 percent decline in year-over-year shoe purchases. While sticker shock is driving the estimated decline, fewer new customers and smaller orders by large merchants are also fueling the sales pullback.
In general, PwC’s analysis is suggesting an overall decline of 4 percent on footwear spend in 2025. Deeper declines are expected for back-to-school (down 8 percent), followed by a 10 percent spending decrease in the shoe category for holiday. But there’s also a note of caution to keep in mind — the survey was conducted in June, when there was more uncertainty over reciprocal tariffs and how high those rates could climb. Consumer sentiment then might not reflect what they are now.
Related Stories
Shoe firms largely kept their promise to implement “surgical” price increases, with the higher costs generally taking hold in June, as in the case of Nike. The athletic giant’s average increase is between $2 and $10, with no increases for items priced under $100.
You May Also Like
While more increases are likely forthcoming for the new lines this fall, brands aren’t expected to implement across-the-board price hikes. And since the increases thus far also appear to be minimal, that could mean lower fears over tariffs hikes now than earlier this summer. But how willing consumers could be to opening their wallets could depend on other factors too.
While shoe brands may be running algorithms to determine the base minimum for an increase, consumers could get hit hard by increases elsewhere, such as the higher costs connected to putting food on the table.
The consultancy firm also noted generational differences in spend patterns. Gen Z and millennials are more inclined to shop online, as well as lean toward “stylish and sustainable” options. In contrast, boomers and Gen X prioritize durability and in-store shopping.
In general, PwC is expecting holiday spending to fall by 5 percent from 2024 levels, representing the first notable drop since 2020.
Eighty-four percent of respondents said they expect to pull back their spending in the next six months, citing rising prices, new tariffs and higher cost of living as the key reasons. Gen Z is expected to cut their spending by 23 percent versus year-ago levels, while boomers are projected to increase their budgets by 5 percent versus the 2 percent average decrease in spending intentions a year ago.
The average spend per person in 2025 is expected at $1,552, versus $1,638 in 2024. And 78 percent of respondents said they are seeking less expensive options this year. The study also noted a shorter holiday calendar as the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday occur later this year, and it said that almost 80 percent of holiday gift budgets will have been spent by the end of Cyber Monday.
“Households with children under the age of 18 are powering holiday spend — shelling out $2,349 on average, more than double the $1,089 spent by those without kids,” PwC said. The survey also found that shopping channels are reaching parity, with shoppers equally likely to shop online or in stores. Most will be using credit cards as their preferred shopping payment method, with 52 percent ranking it within the top 3 options, followed by cash and gift or prepaid cards. The dominant fulfillment mode at 70 percent is home delivery, with same-day delivery most popular with Gen Z and millennials. Respondents cited gift cards and apparel as the popular gifts for adult family members, with gift cards and consumables the go-to choices for friends.
Value has been a key trend this year. It was the key theme for this year’s back-to-school shopping season. And a survey from AlixPartners in partnership with the Footwear Distributors & Retailers of America — polled in June, with data results disclosed in July — noted that tariffs and shoe prices had parents considering either trade-down options or buying fewer pairs. But since the survey was done before trade deals were disclosed, responses also reflected expectations that shoe price increases could spike by 10 percent to 25 percent.
Against that backdrop of potential sticker shock, 77 percent in the AlixPartners survey from June said “absolute lowest prices” was a major factor in their choice of store, either online or in person. The study found that consumers also have a preference for retailers that offer buy-now-pay-later options, loyalty rewards and real-time price comparison tools.
AlixPartners noted that if consumers pulled forward their spend in anticipation of higher prices later on, that move could leave less available later in their holiday budget.