WASHINGTON — Fallout from the midterm elections is lingering in the form of close House races from industrial and textile states that are just being decided.
The outcomes of some races could be indicators of political volatility surrounding trade votes on Capitol Hill, experts said.
Rep. Robin Hayes (R., N.C.), a key player in trade legislation, won a fifth term after his opponent conceded defeat Wednesday. Hayes, scion of the Cannon textile family, secured victory by just 329 votes over Democrat Larry Kissell, a civics teacher and former textiles worker, who made trade and the loss of North Carolina textile jobs a campaign issue.
The impact of the Bush administration’s trade policies on U.S. manufacturing jobs, which have been in a long-term decline, and lawmakers’ votes on trade deals were factors in several races. Democrats secured the majority in the House and Senate for the first time in 12 years, potentially changing the landscape of trade policy.
Hayes’ contest was one of a handful in which recounts were required because the margin was so close.
Rep. Deborah Pryce, a seven-term Republican from Ohio who is pro-trade and received fashion industry campaign support, is still facing a recount, although she has been certified the winner by 1,054 votes, said George Rasley, director of communications for Pryce.
The election results “send a message to everyone that you have to be careful on trade issues,” said Cass Johnson, president of the National Council of Textile Organizations. “Trade is a two-edged issue. It can make voting for a good agreement like CAFTA [Central American Free Trade Agreement] politically dangerous, but it also may stop bad agreements from ever making it to Congress.”
Johnson said he expects to see “more scrutiny and suspicion of trade agreements and concern about the loss of jobs because of trade agreements” by members of Congress.
Eric Heberlig, associate professor of political science at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, said, “Hayes clearly has given his potential opponents the ability to make an issue with his votes on trade, particularly his switches at the last minute on a couple of trade bills. More than that, though, it was just a national anti-Republican wave that hit this year.”
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Hayes changed his vote on the CAFTA agreement last year and the pact squeaked through the House by two votes. He has maintained that he switched after receiving assurances from House leaders and administration officials that they would try to curb textile imports from China. The U.S. subsequently forged a bilateral textile agreement with China that restricts 34 categories through 2008.
More recently, Hayes has voted against two trade bills — one before the midterm elections and one right after. He led a group of textile-state lawmakers in blocking a proposal introduced by Rep. Bill Thomas (R., Calif.) in September that provided expanded duty-free benefits for Haiti. The textile lawmakers maintain such benefits will displace U.S. fabric and yarn exports to the Caribbean because the bill allows for a specific amount of fabric and yarn from anywhere in the world, including China.
Hayes also voted against granting permanent normal trade relations to Vietnam because the legislation does not extend existing apparel and textile quotas or provide for a China-like safeguard mechanism.
“Trade was one of the issues, but it wasn’t the defining factor at all,” Hayes said in an interview Thursday, citing anti-Republican sentiment.