GENEVA — Competitive prices for cotton, robust economic growth, notably in China, and greater availability of cotton products should contribute to world cotton mill consumption expanding by 3 percent from Aug. 1, 2006 to July 31, 2007, a report by the International Cotton Advisory Committee projects.
Much of the increase is driven by the surge in mill consumption in China, which in the 12 months ended this past July 31 rose by 1.6 million tons to reach 9.9 million tons.
“The Chinese expansion in textile processing is the result of an aggressive increase in textile exports to the rest of the world, including industrial and developing countries,” the report said.
It estimates Chinese mill consumption will expand by a further 600,000 tons in 2006-2007, to 10.5 million tons.
Meanwhile, a top official at China National Reserves Corp. said China’s demand this year will reach 10.6 million tons and output will total 6 million tons, according to a report by the Xinhua news service.
Last year, worldwide end-use consumption of cotton increased by 7.8 percent to 24.3 million tons and cotton products accounted for 86 percent of global consumption of fiber products, compared with 14 percent for wool, and cellulosic and non-cellulosic products, the ICAC report said. An 11 percent drop in cotton prices last year also helped to increase cotton consumption, as did the removal of global quotas for international trade in textiles and apparel.
The outlook for cotton supply and use by the Washington-based ICAC, a forum of 40 countries involved in the production, trade and consumption of cotton, including the U.S., projects end-use cotton consumption worldwide will increase by 3.2 percent in 2006 and by 2 percent in 2007.
In 2005, end-use consumption per capita advanced 6 percent to a record 3.77 kilograms and surpassed the previous record of 3.65 kilograms posted in 1987.
On global supply, the ICAC report expects production to remain stable in 2006-2007 at about 25 million tons. World cotton imports are also forecast to remain stable at around 9.7 million tons, with China alone accounting for more than 4 million tons. The U.S. is expected to retain its spot as the world’s biggest cotton exporter with a 37 percent share.
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The result, the report predicts, will see global cotton stocks, which in 2005-2006 contracted by 300,000 tons, decline by a further 800,000 tons in 2006-2007. In 2004-2005, record production saw global cotton stocks of 11 million tons, the highest in two decades.