U.S. retailers are expected to drive a record $23.8 billion in online spending as a result of Amazon‘s Prime Day event, which takes place from Tuesday to Friday. That represents 28.4 percent growth year-over-year, and $9.6 billion more than the comparable period a year ago.
That’s according to Adobe, which analyzes direct transactions online, covering more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 millions skus and 18 product categories.
This year’s anticipated results are equivalent to two Black Fridays, which drove $10.8 billion in online spend during the 2024 holiday shopping season. Shopping on mobile devices is planned to hit an all-time high, driving 52.5 percent of online sales (versus desktop shopping) at $12.5 billion. This continues to be a growth driver for U.S. retailers, with more impulse shopping on mobile devices.
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Discounts are expected to continue at historically high levels — on par with the major deals consumers saw last year during the Prime Day event. Major U.S. retailers such as Walmart and Target are using Amazon’s Prime Day as an opportunity to launch their own sales.
Overall, discounts across U.S. retailers will be in the range of 10 to 24 percent off listed prices. Across categories, Adobe expects apparel to have the biggest deals at 24 percent versus 20 percent last year. Other categories with major discounts will be electronics at 22 percent (versus 23 percent), televisions at 17 percent (versus 16 percent), appliances at 16 percent (versus 14 percent), toys at 15 percent (versus 15 percent), furniture at 14 percent (versus 16 percent), computers at 12 percent (versus 11 percent) and sporting goods at 10 percent (versus 11 percent.)
Adobe has found that consumers are expected to “trade up” to higher-ticket items, driven by strong discounts. In fact, the share of the most expensive goods is set to increase by 18 percent compared to average levels year-to-date. In categories including electronics, the share of the most expensive goods is expected to rise by a significant 52 percent. The trend holds across sporting goods (up 32 percent), appliances (up 29 percent), furniture (up 28 percent), toys (up 18 percent), personal care (up 15 percent) and apparel (up 9 percent). Categories with a drop include home and garden (down 4 percent) and grocery (down 6 percent), as consumers embrace lower-price products.
From K-12 to higher education, shopping for essentials is expected to take place ahead of the school season, which generally begins in mid-August to early September. Adobe expects an increase in online sales for backpacks and lunch boxes (up 225 percent compared to the daily average in June 2025), kids’ apparel (up 200 percent) and general school/office supplies (up 180 percent). Strong growth is also expected in twin/full mattresses and toppers (up 55 percent), bedroom/bathroom linens (up 49 percent), microwaves (up 75 percent), headphones and speakers (up 150 percent) and computers (up 140 percent), which are essentials for college students.
Besides back-to-school shopping, Adobe expects consumers will wait for good deals before they buy products they are eyeing. Strong growth is expected in such categories as home security products, e- readers, televisions, luggage, streaming devices, vacuums and small kitchen appliances, along with smartphones, smart home items and books.
A new trend this year is around generative AI-powered chat services and browsers. During the 2024 holiday shopping season, Adobe observed the first material surge in generative AI traffic to U.S. retailers, measured by shoppers clicking on a link. Between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, 2024, traffic from generative AI sources increased by 1,300 percent compared to the prior year. This trend continues.
During the Prime Day event, Adobe anticipates traffic from generative AI sources to increase by 3,200 percent year-over-year. And while AI-driven traffic remains modest compared to other channels such as paid search or email, the growth shows the value consumers are seeing in leveraging AI to quickly find information on deals and product details.
In a recent Adobe survey of 5,000 U.S. consumers, the shopping tasks respondents said they used generative AI for are conducing research (55 percent), receiving product recommendations (47 percent), seeking deals (43 percent), getting present ideas (35 percent), finding unique product (35 percent) and creating shopping lists (33 percent). Of those who have used AI for shopping, 92 percent said it enhanced their experience, with 97 percent saying that they are more likely to use AI for larger or more complex purchases.
Buy now, pay later usage is expected to see a slight uptick during the Prime Day event, as budget-conscious consumers seek greater flexibility in managing their spend. During the Prime Day event, Adobe expects buy now, pay later to drive between $1.8 billion and $1.9 billion of overall online spend. This represents an 8 percent share, up from 7.6 percent last year.
During the Prime Day event, paid search is expected to remain the top driver of retail sales across major marketing channels, with its expected share of revenue around 28 percent, up by 1 percent to 3 percent year-over-year. In affiliates and partners, which includes social media influencers, share of revenue is set to be 19.9 percent, but growth has been more substantial, up 16 percent year-over-year.
Adobe’s data also shows that influencers are set to convert shoppers (individuals making a purchase after seeing influencer content) 10 times more than social media overall.
Strong spending during the Prime Day event will be driven by net-new demand, as opposed to higher prices. The Adobe Digital Price Index, which tracks online prices across 18 product categories, shows that e-commerce prices have fallen for 33 months — down 2.01 percent year-over-year in May 2025. Adobe’s numbers are not adjusted for inflation, but if online inflation were factored in, there would be even higher growth in top-line consumer spend.