A Plus-Size Embrace

NEW YORK — A wave of plus-size purchasing is starting to build.

Increased sales of women’s plus-size apparel since May 2004 have been spurred partly by a larger selection of those sizes at department stores, said Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst at The NPD Group, a Port Washington, N.Y.-based market research company.

The biggest change has been the ability of the department stores to capture plus-size business from women who previously had migrated to larger misses’ sizes — to a 16 from a 12 or 14, Cohen said, in disclosing results of an NPD special-sizes study.

“Plus-size clothing has a captive audience, so it tends to be less promotionally priced,” Cohen said, a quality that sets it apart from another special size, petites. “Last year, [department stores] made a commitment to plus sizes; this year, they will be better positioned to take advantage of it. Plus sizes have made their way into their customers’ lives.”

Those dynamics pushed up unit sales to 1.46 million pieces of plus-size apparel in 2004 from 1.42 million items a year earlier. On a dollar-basis, however, plus-size volume shrank 1.3 percent to $16.9 billion last year, compared with $17.2 billion in 2003. Flagging demand at discount stores, where the majority of special-size women shop, kept plus-size dollar volume from climbing, Cohen said. These sales represented 18 percent of the $95 billion in women’s apparel purchasing overall.

Nonetheless, Cohen anticipates plus-size sales will gain momentum. He’s projecting spending in the category will expand by 3.5 percent to reach about $17.5 billion this year, and by 5.5 percent to around $18.5 billion in 2006, propelled by growth of the plus-size population and its increasing interest in staying fashionable. Discount stores are likely to step up efforts to appeal to those consumers now that department stores are establishing a stronger presence in the category, Cohen said.

Sizes designated as either plus or women’s are worn by the second-largest share of women ages 18 or older, or 22 percent, according to a Retail Forward ShopperScape survey last March. By comparison, 30 percent wear misses’ sizes 2 to 14; 18 percent wear misses’ sizes 16 to 20, and 18 percent wear petite sizes 2 to 14. The distribution of sizes is rounded out by the 7 percent of women who wear juniors’ sizes 1 to 15 and the 6 percent who wear tall sizes, 2 to 14.

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The largest share of plus sizes are donned by women ages 55 to 64, or 26 percent of that category, a group 17 percent more likely to wear them than women overall, Retail Forward found. The biggest portion of petites are worn by those 55 and up, or 22 percent, and that group is 23.5 percent more likely to do so. Tall sizes are most common among 18- to 24-year-olds, chosen by 9 percent of that demographic, which is 49 percent more likely to wear them than women in general.

These conditions add up to the potential for single-digit plus-size sales growth in the next two years, a growth rate that is becoming more attractive to stores because the consumer’s appetite for apparel remains weaker than their clamor for other products, Cohen said. Clothing has captured a slimmer slice of wallet almost every year since 1980, when it snagged 4.9 percent. It stood at 3.16 percent last year, flat with 2003 and down from 3.28 percent in 2002, based on Census Bureau data, noted Lois Huff, a senior vice president and consumer behavior specialist at Columbus, Ohio-based consultant Retail Forward. 

“In today’s world, any growth is important,” Cohen said. “The [department stores] are not put off by 3 to 5 percent annual growth rates, as in the past. It’s the same reason they’re bringing back electronics — there is more of a search for niche [customers].”

Further, Americans’ sensibilities about larger body types and plus-size apparel are evolving in a manner Cohen characterized as one more talked about, socially accepted, and top of mind.

Given such a breeding ground, why hasn’t plus-size purchasing been rising more rapidly?

The number-one inhibitor is a dearth of styles in the sizes people want, a problem that plagues plus-size and tall customers alike. It was cited by two-thirds of both those groups in NPD’s online survey last June of 8,000 females, ages 13 and up, which included 6,500 who said they wear a special size for at least one clothing item.

By comparison, not being able to find the right size in styles they wanted was a problem noted by 59 percent of petites and 45 percent of junior-size women.

“A woman’s experience with past fit is the biggest influence on how they buy a special size — much more so than other women — and plus-size women tend to have a less forgiving range than petites or tall customers,” Cohen said.

The fact special-size women and teens do not necessarily wear those sizes in all items makes it challenging to carry the range of sizes best suited to a store’s customers. For example, the NPD Online Panel found more females wear special-size pants (73 percent) and tops (63 percent) than bras (51 percent) and panties (39 percent).

Further complicating matters, special-size consumers are not satisfied with fashions as presented on slender models in ads and mannequins in stores. They prefer separate display areas in stores rather than a distribution of special sizes among regular-size apparel.

Almost 90 percent of plus-size women and teens agree it’s hard to visualize an outfit on tall, thin models and mannequins, NPD found. Petites also described most of today’s fashion marketing images as unrealistic and unhelpful in making purchase decisions. More than half, or 54 percent of plus-size females and 56 percent of petites, said they would like to find their sizes in separate departments, as did 45 percent of those who wear tall sizes and 38 percent of women who wear juniors’ sizes. 

It is uncertain whether more fashion players will be willing to pursue the potential represented by the country’s growing segment of plus-size consumers — and to shed long-held concerns about an unglamorous tinge on brand image; the manufacturing and marketing outlays required, and the battle for space on the selling floor.

In Cohen’s view, the specialty stores, such as Lane Bryant and Avenue, are doing “a little better job” than department or discount stores in appealing to plus-size women. The reason general merchants aren’t devoting more marketing funds to plus-size business is about two parts economic, one part image, he said.

Asked to assess the chances that department stores will start targeting plus-size customers with realistic models and mannequins, Cohen replied: “Slim and none.”