After a period of robust growth during the peak-pandemic period in 2021, the footwear industry will see more “modest growth” moving forward, according to the NPD Group.
The firm’s NPD Prices tracker report noted that, largely due to pent-up demand and higher average selling prices, “footwear revenues hit a high point in 2021, growing by 23 percent versus 2020, as unit sales also increased by double digits. However, both revenue and unit sales are projected to level out through 2024.”
There are several factors leading to decelerating sales.
Matt Powell, sports industry adviser at NPD, said the number and depth “of promotions have declined since the pandemic began. Supply issues led to lean inventories, which allowed brands to promote less and sell more shoes at full price. Supply chain issues will ease starting this year, but the industry runs a real risk of overshooting demand, which will cause more promotion and lost margin if improperly managed.”
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As a result, NPD said in its report that industry revenue and unit sales “are on track for a single-digit increase through 2024, although units will remain just under pre-pandemic 2019 levels.”
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In regard to performance of footwear segments, NPD said the fashion footwear category “is lagging behind the sport-leisure, performance and outdoor footwear categories, in terms of recovery.” However, NPD said as consumer lifestyles shift to include more social activities, “certain styles will help the fashion category exceed 2019 revenues by the end of this year.”
Beth Goldstein, fashion footwear and accessories analyst at NPD, said, “Although unit sales will lag, we expect the fashion category will exceed its 2019 revenue mark, aided by rising prices. The standout silhouettes will be those that align with consumers’ demand for casual comfort, as they return to some pre-pandemic events and activities, while at the same time holding onto some pandemic-related behaviors.”
The Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America said industry footwear sales reached $100 billion in 2021, swelling 23 percent compared to 2020.