The denim category is poised for higher discounts this holiday season, according to a recent report from Centric Software, which analyzed data from January through September 2024. Despite a relatively restrained discounting trend during the first half of the year, discount levels for jeans have “jumped rapidly” since June.
In September, discount levels in both the mid and premium categories exceeded those of one year ago. However, Centric reported that discount levels have remained lower and generally stable in the premium category during the rest of the year. The average monthly discount penetration for the premium sector is 30 percent, compared to value (45 percent) and mid (46 percent).
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Pricing trends
Centric’s report also reveals that denim prices have stabilized in 2024, with modest price increases across all categories. On average prices for value denim increased 2 percent and prices for mid increased 3 percent. The premium denim has experienced the most significant increase, with a 4 percent jump.
In terms of average retail prices, the average price for women’s denim has remained flat year-over-year at approximately $160. Prices for men’s denim dipped 1 percent to approximately $180. However, the men’s category has lower average levels of discounting compared to women’s. Centric noted that average discount for women’s denim is 15 percent compared to 13 percent for men’s denim.
What’s selling
Straight, skinny, slim, tapered and relaxed lead the men’s category as the styles with the most products introduced. They are also the styles with the most sellouts from January to September 2024. Bootcut and flare are among the styles most likely on sale, indicating that the Western trend has not trickled into men’s mainstream fashion as it has in women’s.
Women’s denim sales have been driven by a broader range of fits, including straight, bootcut, flare, skinny, slim and tapered styles. The variety of fits highlights how consumers are building out their denim wardrobes and experimenting with silhouettes and fabric constructions.
The categories with the most products introduced are straight, bootcut, flare and cropped. The styles most likely on sale are skinny, slim, tapered, straight, bootcut and flare.
Though skinny jeans are picking up momentum on the runway and mills report a steady demand for stretch fabrics, Centric found that the number of skinny jeans in the women’s market from Jan.-Sept. 2024 declined 27 percent.
Skinny jeans also have the lowest median original price ($80) compared to other styles like wide leg ($129), barrel ($148) and bootcut/flare ($98).
On the other hand, looser fits are gaining popularity. The number of wide jeans in the market grew 70 percent from January to September 2024, and online searches for the fit increased 24 percent. Similarly, the number of barrel or horseshoe jeans increased by 64 percent. Consumers are curious about the fit, with online searches for barrel jeans up 1,845 percent.
High-waisted jeans are losing favor with consumers and retailers. The average monthly search volume for the fit declined 18 percent, while searches for “low-rise baggy jeans” increased 87 percent and searches for “low rise jeans” increased 83 percent.
Additionally, Centric found that from Jan.-Sept 2024 there are 42 percent more low-rise styles in the market.
Consumers are also moving away from ripped and distressed denim. Both keywords have seen searches decline 18 percent. Meanwhile, online searches for cargo jeans dropped 32 percent, signaling a slowdown in Y2K-inspired trends.
Certain brands have experienced notable gains in search interest. Searches for jeans from teen specialty retailers American Eagle and Hollister increased 20 percent and 23 percent, respectively. Searches for Pacsun jeans, which has leaned heavily into loose and low styles this year, increased 166 percent. In the premium market, searches for both Paige and Agolde jeans increased by 21 percent. Searches for Good American jeans decreased by 18 percent.
