The race to the holidays is on, with retailers attempting to predict what, how and why consumers might shop this season. With a strong fourth quarter in the immediate rearview and continued consumer confidence projected ahead, many expect shoppers to celebrate the season with plenty of boxes under the tree.
AlixPartners is predicting a positive holiday season but one that falls short of the surprise hit last year. For the November through January period, the firm anticipates sales will rise 3.1% to 4.1% over comp sales from 2017. Those figures are derived from the company’s premise that year-to-date sales through back-to-school are an accurate indication of where the holidays are headed, and typically represent about 66 percent of retail sales annually.
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“Our projection represents a slowing from the 4.9% year-over-year sales growth this year through August—though on the other hand that’s also off the base of a gangbusters holiday season a year ago, in which November and December sales in total were up 6.1%,” Joel Bines, global co-leader of the retail practice at AlixPartners and a managing director at the firm, said in a statement.
Bines cautioned that “optimism is not a strategy,” adding that retailers will need to put in the work to ensure the sales lift materializes.
Managing director and co-lead David Bassuk agrees it will take a “holistic approach” to see a pay off. “Retailers will have to do all they can to take advantage of this holiday season, as there won’t be any letting up from the competition, plus with the November elections coming up there’s no telling whether we might see some hiccups in the economy,” he said.
To try to insulate against potential issues, content engine Bazaarvoice says stores need to focus on meeting consumers’ specific needs during the holidays. “Holiday shopping is unique; understanding the preferences, traditions and trends that shape consumer behavior and decision-making is critical to a successful holiday season,” said Sara Spivey, chief marketing officer at Bazaarvoice. “Brands and retailers that produce enticing experiences to inspire and connect with shoppers will stand out above the rest.”
For instance, the company’s holiday research shows that 42 percent of consumers shop in store to help put them in the mood, while 32 percent head to shopping centers in search of seasonal experiences like visits to Santa.
Moreover, more than half (57 percent) are impulsive shoppers at this time of year and nearly as many (47 percent) are on the hunt for promos and sales.
