Hoka‘s big contribution to parent Deckers Brands first quarter earnings results is expected to again fuel a strong second quarter — and high income women could provide the athletic performance brand’s hidden advantage.
The Goleta, Calif.-based company in July reported a first quarter net sales increase of 16.9 percent to $964.5 million, versus $825.3 million in the same year-ago quarter. Hoka contributed a 19.8 percent rise in net sales, while Ugg posted an 18.9 percent increase.
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A report from TD Cowen analyst John Kernan indicates that women who earn over $150,000 per year could be Deckers’ secret weapon. TD Cowen’s proprietary Consumer Tracker Survey is conducted monthly — there are now 44 months of data from November 2021 through September 2025, including 35 months of year-over-year data — and surveys 2,500 U.S. adult consumers.
Over the years, Nike continues to dominate across the board, although it has ceded share from its peak running preference share of 44.6 percent in November 2021 to a low point of 30 percent as recently as March 2025. Over the same period, Kernan noted that both Hoka and On are the “two largest share gainers,” moving from an emerging brand position at the end of 2021 to between mid-single digit percent and high-single digit percent preference share within the running sneaker category.
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Among these high-income female earners, Hoka has an 18 percent brand preference in running sneakers, behind only Nike at 26 percent and “significantly above On at 11 percent,” Kernan wrote. The multiple choice of brands given to the survey group were Nike, New Balance, Asics, Under Armour, Adidas, Brooks, Puma, Reebok, Hoka, Skechers, On and Other. New Balance and Asics were tied for third and fourth place at 12.9 percent within this income group, while On placed fifth at 11 percent.
Among the male respondents with annual income of $150,000 plus, Nike was the top brand preference in running sneakers at 24.7 percent, followed by New Balance at 16.1 percent, Brooks at 15.1 percent, Asics at 11.8 percent and then Adidas and Hoka tied at 8.6 percent.
For women between ages 18 and 34, the Nike preference share stabilized 35.6 percent for the past two months, but that was down from its historical peak of 50 percent-plus. New Balance was at 12 percent, followed by Hoka at 9.6 percent.
For men between ages 18 to 34, the Nike preference share “surged sequentially” in September 2025 to 41.8 percent from 32.9 percent in August. New Balance was second at 15.4 percent. Rounding out the top three was Adidas at 9.9 percent.
By annual income between $50,000 and $100,000 for both men and women, the top two running brands were again Nike and New Balance, at 34.5 percent and 15.5 percent, respectively for women and at 29.4 percent and 19.3 percent, respectively for men.
In the casual sneaker category, the choice of brands include Nike, New Balance, Under Armour, Adidas, Puma, Skechers, Converse, Vans, On, Allbirds and Other. Overall, Nike was the top brand of choice at 26.0 percent, followed by Skechers at 21.8 percent and New Balance rounding out the top three at 11.8 percent. For women between ages 18 to 34, Nike was the top choice at 32.1 percent, followed by Vans at 17.3 percent and Converse rounding out the top three at 12.3 percent. For men in the same age group, Nike was the top choice at 42.4 percent, followed by New Balance at 13.7 percent and Vans at 12.2 percent.
By annual income between $50,000 and $100,000, the top choice among women was Nike at 26.6 percent, followed by Skechers at 22.4 percent and Vans at 10.1 percent. Nike was also the top choice among men at 25.2 percent, followed by Skechers at 22.5 percent and New Balance at 16.2 percent.
For women with annual income of over $150,000, Nike and Skechers tied for the top choice at 24.3 percent, followed in third place by Adidas at 14.6 percent. And among men, Nike was on top again at 25.5 percent, with Skechers next at 17 percent and New Balance at 16.4 percent.
Deckers is set to post second quarter results on Oct. 23. Shares have been trading in the $98 range, and Kernan has a price target of $125. The prior target was $154 a share. The analyst lowered his estimates for the third and fourth quarters and for Fiscal Year 2027 to account for tariff impact and potential third quarter margin and earnings per share guidance below consensus. Tariffs are expected to represent a $185 million “unmitigated impact” to cost of goods sold.
Kernan said his firm’s checks and data on “Ugg and Hoka suggest trends are stable.” But while the September survey data highlights Hoka’s rising position, he noted that a bull case scenario likely requires Hoka to reaccelerate sales in the U.S. market.