NEW YORK — This was supposed to be the holiday season that shakes most of the e-commerce pure-plays off the Web and out of business. But on Wednesday evening, Internet off-pricer Bluefly Inc. projected its sales for the fourth quarter will nearly double as customer acquisition costs decline to their lowest level ever and both its average order size and revenue realized from repeat customers hit new highs.
Bluefly, which went live online in September 1998, is estimating it will produce sales of $5.8 million for the quarter ended Dec. 30, marking a 90 percent surge over revenue of $2.7 million a year earlier.
The dot-com further forecast its average order size would run up 20 percent, totaling $112.18, compared with the $93.48 average it recorded during the fourth quarter of 1999; that would top Bluefly’s former peak of $100.86.
Bluefly believes it will acquire more than new 36,000 customers while producing sales of more than $2.7 million from existing customers alone for the quarter.
“Our own conclusion is that we’re doing a better job with our existing customer base,” said Ken Seiff, Bluefly’s chief executive officer. “We’ve had more contact with them via e-mail and regular mail, and we are also getting packages to them faster and with better packaging.
“We are shipping 98 percent of our holiday orders within one day of receiving them, versus a five or six-day window to get an order out the door last year,” Seiff continued. “We also reduced significantly the ratio of customer service inquiries per order by providing the customer with more self-help tools, including allowing our customers to track the status of their orders on our Web site. In terms of customer service and fulfillment, we have made some significant improvements.”
Not surprisingly, Bluefly has done so on a tighter advertising budget — spending $2.1 million this holiday, or roughly 30 percent less than the $3 million it shelled out a year earlier.
“While the sluggish retail environment may have prevented us from reaching the even stronger sales we had hoped for, we believe we have made significant strides,” Seiff stated.
So when’s Bluefly going to buzz into the black? “With the way the retail climate has changed in the last 12 weeks, we’d like to see one more quarter like this under our belt before I can project the quarter in which we will become profitable,” Seiff demurred.
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Wall Street is reserving judgment as well: Bluefly’s stock on Monday hit a 52-week low of 38 cents a share.