Cyber Monday will be a big revenue win for retailers, as mobile and AI usage continue to gain popularity.
Salesforce predicts Cyber Monday will drive $13.4 billion in sales in the U.S., up 4 percent year-over-year. But a more bullish Adobe expects U.S. consumers to spend $14.2 billion online, up 6.3 percent year-over-year and nearly $900 million more than Cyber Monday last year. Adobe expects online spending to peak between 8 and 10 p.m. on Monday, with $16 million spent every minute.
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Cyber Monday is expected to be a successful culmination of a robust Cyber Week, counting sales from Thanksgiving Day through Monday. For the holiday season overall, retailers predict online and brick-and-mortar store sales will increase around 3 to 4 percent on a combined basis.
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Along with AI and mobile shopping, consumers are embracing buy now, pay later options and responding to discounting, widely seen at 30 to 50 percent off. Among the deals advertised on Cyber Monday were 50 percent off everything at Gap, up to 50 percent off apparel and shoes at Target and 30 to 40 percent off at Skechers site wide.
Reports of traffic online and in stores have, to some degree, mitigated worries across the industry that inflation and tariff-related price increases would significantly impede holiday shopping. Salesforce reported that the average selling price in the U.S. this week is up 5 percent, and globally, the average selling price is up 4 percent.
Cyber Monday is still the biggest day for online shopping in the U.S. But Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights, said in a statement: “While we expect record spend online today for Cyber Monday, Black Friday is challenging its dominance as the big e-commerce moment of the year. Consumers now expect comparable deals to happen earlier during Cyber Week and many are not waiting to hit the ‘buy’ button. Cyber Monday has essentially become ‘last call’ for big discounts during the holiday season, with electronics and apparel set to take the lion’s share of online spend.”
According to Adobe, a record $11.8 billion was spent online over the weekend, an increase of 8.7 percent year-over-year and higher than Adobe’s original forecast of $11.4 billion. “This is equivalent to an entire Black Friday’s worth of online spend, which came in at $11.8 billion this year, up 9.1 percent,” Adobe indicated. Online spending on Thanksgiving was $6.4 billion, which was up 5.3 percent from a year ago.
Adobe also said mobile shopping would drive 58 percent, or $8.2 billion, of the Cyber Monday spend, with the balance of sales completed on desktops.
Electronics, apparel and furniture are expected to be the biggest three selling categories online on Cyber Monday, Adobe said. Electronics will draw $3.6 billion in online sales, up 12.5 percent year-over-year; apparel will draw $2.7 billion, up 5.8 percent from a year ago, and furniture will draw $1.8 billion in sales up 5.2 percent.
Other “standout” categories on Cyber Monday will be cosmetics, generating $500 million, up 7.2 percent, and sporting goods, generating $500 million, up 6.2 percent.
While the discounting on Cyber Monday will be appealing, Adobe’s survey of more than 1,000 U.S. consumers conducted in November concluded that only 27 percent of the respondents believe Cyber Monday has the best online deals this season, with 49 percent thinking Black Friday had the deepest discounts, and 10 percent thinking Thanksgiving had the deepest discounts. The survey showed that 48 percent of the respondents said Cyber Monday was the main day they planned to shop online this season, compared with 62 percent for Black Friday.
Adobe also reported that buy now, pay later usage would cross the $1 billion milestone, reaching $1.04 billion, up 5 percent year-over-year.
“Consumers using AI-powered shopping channels show stronger buying intent than consumers on social media,” Salesforce said. “Retailers with their own branded shopping agents on their e-commerce sites saw three times greater sales growth compared to sites without during Cyber Weekend.”