No more excuses.
With the weather breaking this week, an early Easter and some pent-up consumer demand for spring goods, stores are betting on a lift in business in the coming weeks to help offset what’s been a tough winter and a generally depressed mood. If they don’t, something’s wrong with the presentation.
Also in their favor — some healthy spring fashion selling in early February. Though it got cut short when much of the Northeast, South and Midwest got bombarded by snow and ice, the performance early last month is seen as a harbinger. The prom business (dresses generally,) ath-leisure and footwear, (particularly boots,) are seen as strong trends with staying power. Retailers also cite designer merchandise that’s unique and on the pricier side as selling well when the weather is tolerable, and on the hard goods side, home repair — after the damaging winter — is expected to be robust going forward.
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In addition, retail report cards will be aided by easy comparisons to a year ago, when March sales were widely negative or slightly up. For most retailers, February is the smallest volume month of the quarter, raising expectations for March and April.
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“With the weather breaking, we are going to see a huge uptick in spring goods being sold,” predicted Jim von Maur, president of the Von Maur department store chain based in Davenport, Iowa. “February was abysmal in terms of the weather. Sales were flat. Our margins were a hair better.”
Von Maur cited rain boots, including the Hunter brand; ath-leisure; leggings; jewelry from John Hardy and Alex and Ani; Bobbi Brown and Chanel beauty products; children’s Easter dresses, and prom dresses, as among this season’s bestsellers. “With prom, we are finding the girls want more fitted, red-carpet-looking, simple, clean dresses,” von Maur said.
At the Charlotte, N.C.-based Belk Inc., “We feel we are owed some business,” David Zant, the department store chain’s president and chief merchandising officer, said.
“Through Valentine’s Day, we had strong selling, particularly in the dressier categories,” he added. “Ladies’ dresses improved significantly after a challenging fall. Men’s sport coats, suit separates and dress shirts were all strong. Inventory levels were in great shape coming into spring.
“Then, a series of storms started rolling in the last two weeks of February. It definitely impeded customers and their shopping habits. We have stores closed right now in our northern footprint. But we definitely feel that since we got a start in February, customers will come out again. Easter, earlier this year by two weeks, will create more of an urgency in March. In the South, the customer tends to dress up more for Easter.”
However, as Gap and L Brands executives noted last week, while the early Easter will boost business in March, it will pull sales out of April, so it’s important to examine March and April combined to get a clearer read on retail.
As far as the weather’s impact on sales, retailers will catch up. “The weather principally shifts purchasing behavior. It doesn’t alter the total,” said one retail chief executive officer who requested anonymity. “I don’t worry about things you can’t control. It self-corrects.”
Nevertheless, “the country is weather weary,” said Evan Gold, senior vice president at Planalytics, a consulting firm that helps retailers with their planning based on weather patterns. “The only areas where spring has popped is out West, in California, Nevada and Arizona, which had relatively mild winters.”
This week, “you are not going to see an extreme change in the weather. It will be a normal snap, which will feel extremely warm for a lot of people in the Northeast, getting them into the spring mind-set,” Gold said. “We will definitely see an uptick. Retailers are also up against easier comps. This week a year ago, it was cold.”
In the days leading up to Easter, Gold added, “You should expect retailers to promote more and maybe give some margin away to drive customers into the stores. It will be a good environment for the customer.”
Major population centers, on average, will be 2 to 5 degrees warmer in March, compared to March 2014. “A one- or two-degree change in March affects consumer shopping behavior much more than one or two degrees in July or August would,” Gold said.
“I was pleasantly surprised that the best women’s designer customers have been shopping,” said Bob Mitchell, copresident of the Mitchells Family of Stores. Shoppers have been opting for “special” luxe pieces, often with fur trim, particularly those from Brunello Cucinelli, Mitchell said. Also on his best-seller list: leather from The Row and Valentino dresses and “those things that are unique and different and some of the more expensive pieces. They’ve clicked early. That’s a very good sign for the season.”
Men’s wear, however, has suffered from the weather factor, and there’s “a whole other layer of women” yet to shop to the degree he would like, Mitchell said.
When the weather is bad, online Web sites are even more relevant to shoppers. For two on the West Coast, Revolve and Forward by Elyse Walker, February was strong, according to Mike Karanikolas, cofounder and co-ceo of both businesses, which are in Cerritos, Calif. Karanikolas added the company has a “strong foothold” in both California and New York, with East Coast customers just as busy buying up spring merchandise as those on the other side of the country. “The adverse weather hasn’t stopped her from shopping,” he said.
Sales of cold-weather items are doing particularly well for El Segundo-based JustFab, the online subscription fashion retailer that carries selections of shoes, handbags, jewelry and denim, according to co-ceo Don Ressler.
Sales of boots, along with comfortable items such as flats and sneakers, are trending higher than the same time a year ago, Ressler reported. “Even though it might be springtime in retail, shoppers don’t transition until they actually feel the season changing,” he said. “For most of the country, it’s still the dead of winter, so our winter and season-neutral items are still top performers.”
The company did well last month by offering transitional pieces, he said, such as pumps and ankle booties. JustFab has been testing women’s apparel for the past year and is set to roll out a full range in April.
Sales of designer handbags, shoes, jewelry, cosmetics and bridal are up at Stanley Korshak in Dallas, but women’s clothing is below plan, according to Crawford Brock, owner. “I think it is totally weather related, and once we get some sunny days that thing will explode,” Brock said. “The men’s business has not been affected.”
Weather has affected store traffic and employee transportation, said Brian Bolke, president and cofounder of Forty Five Ten, but shoes and bags are still hot, especially by Margiela, as well as “flatform” sandals. Cashmere is also selling well.
“Surprisingly, the overall numbers are positive,” said Bolke, adding that evening and cocktail is selling.
Connie Sigel, owner of Elements in Dallas, said February sales were up 20 percent and March is ahead despite a snow day last week.
“I am optimistic for the rest of spring and for March,” Sigel said. “I think our customers know that it is supply and demand in today’s luxury market and there is a lot more demand than supply…People are realizing that many items sell out and that buying earlier in the season and acting fast is the only way to respond in this market.”
“We do think business will bounce back in March and April,” said Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners. “Bad weather doesn’t destroy demand, it displaces it either forward, backward or online. The underlying level of demand for product doesn’t change. If people really want something, they get it ahead of time, they get it afterward, or they get it online.
“Easter as a shopping event is simply not big, but retailers key a lot of promotions to it. Prom ads start in February, but the real peak in the business is in March,” Johnson observed.
As far as the impact from the West Coast port slowdown, “The ports is more of an excuse than an actuality,” said Johnson. “Everybody knew about it ahead of time.”
But von Maur said, “Some critical product has been held up for weeks.
At one point, Ressler thought March shipments weren’t going to arrive until April. “Luckily, that wasn’t the case. That said, as a fast-fashion company, any delays cause headaches because our business is built on consistent newness and turning around trends to our customers quickly.”